Allen, back from my bicycling trip with ego severely bruised by the steep hills and body dotted with mosquito bites. The real world did not fair much better in my absence. Despite seemingly great news for both WIND and QCOM, the stocks have sure lost their momemtum.
In hind sight, I did not regret my cowardly move to go 40%+ cash. I am not sure if I share your opinion about the Asia "crisis". China remains my biggest fear. Based on what I know, I can't buy the optimism that China would be immuned from the Asia flu.
"I for one will be interested in when you decide the world is safe
enough again to warrant your reinvestments."
The problems in Korea, Thailand, Japan, Indonesia are all well documented by now and the damage done to the respective markets. Just like the alcoholics who finally came out of the denial face enroute to recovery, I would normally consider this a bottom if not for China.
The new China is only 49 years old. It is the first time in its 3000+ years history that it is no longer a monachy. Laws and rules are created as needed, often by incompetent bureaurcrats, leading to disastrous results such as "The Great Leap Forward" and the "Cultural Revolution". The infrastructure is fragile and the problems colosal. I can go on and on but it may be unfair to the other readers of this thread. (Would gladly debate this subject via email.)
HK, Taiwan, Japan, Korea all play important roles in helping to awaken the sleeping giant. I can't believe that China can maintain a ~10% growth rate with all the smaller neighbors in trouble. This seemingly inexhaustible reserve that is financing countless number of projects all over the country, not to mention the three gorges project, have me wondering if China would not face the same problem as Korea, only bigger.
I guess I like to see China lay some cards on the table before jumping back in with both feet. Secondly, I like to see some earning revisions by the big multi-national companies, taking into account revenue that may be delayed for a few qtrs, if not a few years. Timing wise, I suspect that 1998 would not be a rewarding year for the buy and hold investor.
Back to WIND (and QCOM), why not take advantage of the volatility and the depth of fundamental data available here? I am going to venture into the world of short term position or even day trading in the immediate future. Wish me luck.
Ramsey |
