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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI)
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To: Mr. Aloha who wrote (12426)1/8/1998 9:48:00 PM
From: Robert DeHaven  Read Replies (2) of 25960
 
Aloha, Maxwell et. all:

Here is some babble from a Deutsche Morgan Grenfell piece out today...

As the yen weakens vis a vis the dollar, so to will chip sales forecasts decline as a swing of 5 yen per dollar up or down impacts reported global semiconductor sales by 1 %. Few observers feel the US will allow the yen to fall to 150/170/dollar for fears of igniting a trade war.

"Shrinks" have added as much as 70-80% to capacity. The "good news" is that '98 pull backs combined with .25 micron (some argue .18 micron) may be the last high volume "easy shrink and may limit the growth of DRAM capacity in '98. Looking ahead whether purchases of $1000 PC's with 16MB or if their upgraded to 32, or 48 MB is very important. More critical is impact of new software designs.....

300MM pushouts; New material forthcoming-- The impending juggernaut of the move to 300MM wafers was dispelled...seven pilot lines expected last July have turned into three, the adoption of the larger wafer size has shifted out 1-2 years to 2002-04. The move to the right is a function of tool immaturity in lithography, CMP, and metrology. Advances in DUV lith, masks and resists may enable current generation tools (248 nanometer light source) to extend down to .15 or .13 micron design rules. The ability to shrink die sizes with existing tools reduces the appeal of the larger wafer size. The debate over copper or low K dielectrics continues. An alternative accelerating adoption of low K dielectrics may be gaining more momentum especially as the availability of advanced polymers increases.

Comments anyone???

Bob
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