-331 in HK, -279 in Tokyo, -12 in Korea. Unemployment rate comes out tomorrow; expected at 4.6% says briefing.com; what would be bad (or good) for the market? Higher, lower, on target? Higher and things are slowing; good for bonds, bad for earnings. Lower and we have more wage pressure; G-man can't cut rates, so the economy slows anyway. Actually, I think any news these days is bad news, an excuse to sell. What's good for bonds is no longer good for stocks; decoupled months ago now. Companies are warning and people are nervous. Managers look back on a three year hot streak and think "it was fun while it lasted, but I don't want to get killed in January and spend the rest of the year just trying to break even".
The "tell" will be in the faces of some commentators/market gurus. 1987, Wall Street Week the Friday before, Marty Zweig looked like he had seen a ghost, physically ill, said "this is a crash". Last October, Good Morning America that Monday morning, James Cramer had the same look, said "all the right things", but looked panicked. I'll be watching.
Sorry to be so gloomy,
Bob |
