here are some thoughts:
Tonight , the Asian problem seems to be continuing.ÿ Indonesia is up about
4%, rebounding from its drubbing yesterday, but most of the rest of Asia is
down and some parts are down hard.ÿ Singapore and the Philipines are down 8
and 10 percent respectively as I write this.ÿ It is hard to believe that
this won't effect the US markets tomorrow.ÿ The question becomes "how much
more?".
Looking at the arms index over the past few days, it has been over 1.0 for
most of the trading days and the new lows on the NYSE have gone over 40 once
again (yesterday and today).ÿ The NYSE tick has spent most of the past few
days in negative to very negative territory.ÿ Although, on Tuesday and
Wednesday, the markets experienced late day rallies and the "closing tick"
was quick positive.ÿ Basically, there has been quite a bit of net selling
the past few days...although some of it was occuring on lower volume (and
that is usually a positive).ÿ Another positive is the amount of bearish
sentiment that exists right now (the old contrarian indicator).ÿÿ And once
again, NYSE member buying in mid to late Dec is yet another positive
indicator.
Also from Sunday:
"The Dow's 50 day MA stands at about 7770 and its 200 day MA is around 7607.
These levels should be used as initial support to the downside."
These are the initial levels to look at on the Dow.ÿ Hopefully that should
about do it.ÿ To fall back to 7000-7200 level would require a very quick
comeback to 7600 to keep the market from having a domino effect downward.
The Nasdaq couldn't hold above 1590 and for the short term that wasn't a
good sign on that index.ÿ Although signs that some of the techs are making
higher lows in the latest round of selling yesterdayÿ is encouraging.
Dallas Semiconductor reported better than expected earnings this evening,
although it didn't really move much after hours.ÿ Adaptec warned about their
earnings and its stock got crushed by over 8 points after the bell....this
market is severely punishing bad news and only accepting the good news.ÿ It
looks like that will continue until things are more clear about how Asia's
mess will effect US earnings.
so in review....there are alot of mixed signals for the markets.ÿ One thing
is certain, if you have a company that is not performing up to expectations,
expect it to be taken to the slaughter house.ÿ Maybe, just maybe some of
these slaughters will end up creating good buying opportunities after the
dust settles.
Thats it for tonight.
Sweet dreams.
Paulo |
