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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory

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The Ox

To: The Ox who wrote (20115)	10/10/2017 4:11:19 AM
From: John Pitera	2 Recommendations Read Replies (3) of 33421

Tony Dwyer is in my top ten list of Market strategists...............he has been for 15 years Tony Dwyer, Canaccord Genuity chief market strategist, discusses how earnings play into his price target for the S&P here was his interview from 5:36 ET on cnbc fast money on Monday Oct. 9th 2017.... time permitting I shall try to post some of his comments, because as usual they are absolute gems..... you learn to listen to the smart guys and it makes investing so much easier..... Richard Bernstein, who was with MER in the 1990's and the early 2000's is another one of my top ten. I am posting this and hope that I or anyone can listen to the interview and extract the main tenets of his investment and market outlook.. cnbc.com "The market correlates to the direction of earnings (which are expanding... as Jeff Saut..... #3 in my top ten) this leg of the secular bull market is being driven by organic earnings growth. "we need the earnings to go south and that only happens in a recession or when the yield curve inversts and we are a couple of years or at least 18 months from that happening." We could have a peak and a correction, but You don't Have THE PEAK in Earnings (and in Prices) for another 18 months or more when.... The yield curve inverts and Credit shuts down.... right now we are so far away from that happening..... it's only a glimmer in young children's eyes( maybe a bit of hyperbole in that last statement) Tony feels the Banks are am area with upside... and the Insurance companies are going to be big beneficiaries of the growth of earnings. Tony has a profound statement, on what the banks do in a yield curve flattening environment.... they endeavor to make up the difference from the smaller margin between the Long term lending rate and the short term borrowing rate... by increasing the size of their business and so they go out and create more credit, since their margins are smaller. If the FED is increasing feels that inflation is picking up considerably they raise raters aggressively so that they can make an equal amount of money on a smaller spread. on the materials and commodities.... the USD went down so much that he is expecting a reversion to the mean in Materials, natural resources and commodities. Dwyer's though is that the FED is still in it's expansionary credit creation mode...and this is secularlly bullish for US equities......... and their is a follow through to the foreign markets to a large degree. John

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