John,
You remember I mentioned 10-15 as an entry point. Actually, the stock did drop to ~13 in after-market trading after they announced after market close.
Several points I want to make here further with the recent news on ATML:
[1] BTB @ 1.2 for next Q looks good, but I wonder how solid is the number if custumers aren't paying.
[2] Share buyback is a joke in my opinion. Their outstanding share number will only increase like what happened from 96 to 97. They said it last time and didn't do it. Check the filings yourself.
[3] I was talking to a friend this morning. He mentioned ATML has 500M long term debt, and 200M cash. Now they have 160M writeoff, the buyback will just add to that figure. They'll have a cash flow problem very soon if they miss another Q.
[4] Insider selling at 22-23. I mentioned this before. That why I still stick to the 10-15 target price. You haven't see the real bottom yet. Right now it's a 2 yr low and making lower lows, unless there's a buyout, it won't be back above 25 for 3-6 months.
[5] Is there a possibility for buyout? No. No high tech company has the cash and the interest to do it right now in my opinion. A merger? Probably.
[6] Superstitious advice. When you see "steve" in a thread, avoid longing the stock. He was in AMD also, and it halfed since. Probably CPQ is next since he was big on CPQ. I was just kidding, I liked his option strategy.
Several of my picks you might find interesting:
JWC(good fundamental, low pe, e growth, might benefit from interest rate drop, really bought stocks back, I like the self confidence), TERA(which is out with a new supercomputer which will dominate the market in 5 years), ATML (again, if you can get in at 10-15, than with 1.2 BTB Q to Q out of the bottom, a good cyclical stock), DSWLF (my friend told me about this one, he got a 300% return in 97', very sharp investor, great fundamentals, low pe, 30% y-to-y e growth, it also has a warrant trading at $4 right now, symbol DSWWF, good leverage with low risk, earning's out the end of this month), CEA(~$12 now, making new lows, pe~6, best managed airline in China, the RMB is actually going stronger against the dollar, the government is willing to defend the currency at any cost, transportation is growing y-to-y at >40% in China, a good long term growth stock, you might see $10/sh if you're lucky)
I got all my money in TERA for half a year, and is thinking to switch to DSWLF, I might have to wait longer before get in ATML though.
Good luck,
Frank |
