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Technology Stocks : Creative Labs (CREAF)

CREAF 0.411

-6.5%

Dec 8 12:12 PM EST

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To: Alan Chan who wrote (7932)	1/9/1998 9:51:00 AM
From: Douglas V. Fant	Read Replies (1) of 13925

Alan, I think that i would respectfully disagree with you on the US markets. Since the crash late last October, technically two things have been happening with all of the US indices. First each time we've dropped since October, we've made a higher low. And the advance/decline line at each of these lows has improved. If the US market holds its retest of the October low (7560 on the Dow), then I think we may see a strong rally later in the year in US markets, underpinned by the declining interest rates... I am assuming that CREAF's forward earnings estimates will be cut. But even if they are slashed by 33% would you buy a stock for $17 1/2 dollars which is projected to earn say a $1.70 in a down year? This company has no debt and after this quarter about $375mm cash on the books. And note: most Asian markets are down 60% this year. That mans that you can buy assets in Asia for 40 cents on the dollar as to what it would have cost you in early 1997- will CREAF put its cash to work in acquisitions in Asia during this great fire sale I wonder? Here in the US tech stocks are no longer dropping much on bad news. Now every semiconductor Company in the US reports earnings next week as does INTC,SUNW, and MSFT. But watch. I bet that bad reports will not push individual stocks down much more.... BTW- I vote to wait until end of March before committing to Asian Mutual Funds again due to expected Japanese seasonal selling...Then I intend to jump into Asia with a big commitment.... Sincerely, Doug F.

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