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Technology Stocks : Oracle Corporation (ORCL)
ORCL 142.82+4.6%Feb 6 9:30 AM EST

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To: grogger who wrote (276)9/29/1996 7:02:00 PM
From: Peter Shaw   of 19080
 
Rob,
Last time I checked, Oracle had a trailing P/E of 42 but a growth rate of about 33%. That is a lousy PEG ratio of 1.27. The company is an outstanding one, but the valuation of the stock is way out of line. The selloff before earnings was due to fear of missing their number. They barely made it with a major slowdown in application sales. The relief rally looks unsustainable in here, and the chink in the armor could become a major gash with the Microsoft pre announcement of slowing sales and tighter margins. While what's bad for Microsoft might be positive for Oracle, the big issue is lack of confidence in these street stallwharts. What if the fund managers all suddenly realise that their eggs are in an expensive but fragile basket? If the titan called Microsoft can get soft, why couldn't Oracle? Justified or not, this fear can create the selloff that I admitedly expect ( I have a small put position based on valuation issues).
Good Luck to all...

Peter Shaw
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