| | | There is still bundles and bundles of liquidity around..... the 1996 to March of 2000 time period taught me that very well..... no one wants the good times to end... I don't..... I'd love to see US 10 year yields stay under 2.50% or at least below 2.62 and we could be on the way to SPX 2746 ..... first thing in working with markets
do not fight the trend..... this stock market is one of the best trending markets I have ever seen, and the
stock market has lots of rationality in the way it has cut the media companies down, chopped down the
auto parts resellers like AZO, ORLY, AAP, the retail sector..... stocks like Macy's have underlying asset value greater than market capitalization I have to believe.
Don't fight the trend .... Don't fight the FED.... we have 4 vacancies on the Federal Reserve board!
That is totally unprecedented..... I mean what the heck is going on? This has never happened since
the board was created by the bill sponsored by Nelson Aldrich The Federal Reserve Act was passed
on December 23rd 1913.... when almost all of the Senators had already gone home for the Christmas
and New Years holiday.... It was just slipped in
The Federal Reserve Act (ch. 6, 38 Stat. 251, enacted December 23, 1913, 12 U.S.C. ch. 3) is an Act of Congress that created and established the Federal Reserve System, the central banking system of the United States, and which created the authority to issue Federal Reserve Notes (now commonly known as the U.S. Dollar) and Federal Reserve Bank Notes as legal tender. The Act was signed into law by President Woodrow Wilson.
The senators came back after the holidays and low and behold there was a new financial sheriff in town.
only a few members of congress and the Senate have an real substantive knowledge of Financial history,
Banking, Monetary Policy... they are pretty hard pressed trying to come up with a viable Fiscal policy. The
Democrats did not even both to propose a budget for 4 years in a row under Harry Reid's august leadership
........ it almost looked like Reid ended up with a Moe Green special... (for you Godfather aficionados)
..... Nelson Rockefeller's Uncle.... John D
Rockefeller III, David Rockefeller, and Winthrop...... their Mother's dad was the Senator that put
forward the legislation to create the Federal Reserve... after realizing with the famous Standard Oil
Anti Trust case.. that it is indeed very easy to have way to much money and you have to get it out of
your name and off to Foundations you control..... into holding companies that are held by other
companies .. that are then domiciled in these fabulous Free Enterprise Zones that the British, German and
Dutch Bankers were gracious enough to create for the those who are REALLY wealthy.
Wealthy where you have to hid so much money and do everything you can to look like you are not
nearly as wealthy as you are. The Rockefeller's combined their family office with the Rothschild's
5 or 6 years ago.... but both dynasty's are so asset rich that it takes 120 years or 200 years of diligent
planning on how to diversify..... put the assets in inscrutable places, and in names that mean nothing
to only those few who have the master ledger books.
Rockefeller was born in 1908 in Bar Harbor, Maine. He was the second son of financier and philanthropist John Davison Rockefeller Jr. and philanthropist and socialite Abigail Greene "Abby" Aldrich. He had a sister, Abby(1903–76); and four brothers: John III (1906–78), Laurance (1910–2004), Winthrop (1912–73), and David (1915–2017). Their father John Jr. was the only son of Standard Oil co-founder John Davison Rockefeller Sr. and schoolteacher Laura Celestia "Cettie" Spelman. Their mother Abby was a daughter of Senator Nelson Wilmarth Aldrich and Abigail Pearce Truman "Abby" Chapman. Rockefeller received his elementary, middle and high school education at the Lincoln School in New York City, an experimental school administered by Teachers College of Columbia University. In 1930 he graduated cum laude with an A.B. degree in economics from Dartmouth College, where he was a member of Casque and Gauntlet (a senior society), Phi Beta Kappa, and the Zeta chapter of the Psi Upsilon. en.wikipedia.org
And 99.9 % of America thinks the biggest decisions Trump will make will be the Supreme Court.
and I suppose that is the way it should be....
was President Obama so inept a puppet of Lord know who that he could not do anything.... BHO had the highest fiduciary responsibility to not let the board get so empty that no one is barely left to make some
of the most important determinations that impact every single person on the planet.
what did BHO do for the last 4 years of his presidency........... talk about being in over your head.
and what did President Obama win the Nobel Peace Prize for ? for having a white beatnik mom who let her
son use copious amounts of drugs when he was in high school..... who was raised by very affluent white
grandparents?.......when he transfer to Columbia he got a scholarship as a foreign student....
people fudge on their resumes, their taxes and their college loan applications... I got a line of credit today
and the income number I put down for 2017 was a really hazy guess.... I have a much better idea about 2016 and a much better idea about 2014,,,, actually if I file an amendment to my 2014 filing , I am owed a few dollars...........
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dailyreckoning.com
Markets Await Trump’s Decision on Fed ChairPresident Trump is expected to nominate the next Federal Reserve chair within a matter of days.
As I’ve explained before, Donald Trump has the opportunity to appoint a higher percentage of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve system at one time than any president since Woodrow Wilson.
President Wilson signed the Federal Reserve Act during the creation of the Fed in 1913 when they had a vacant board. At that time, the law said the secretary of the Treasury and the comptroller of the currency were automatically on the Fed’s board of governors. But besides that, President Wilson selected all of the other participating members.
Due to vacancies he inherited and key resignations, Trump now has the opportunity to fill more seats on the Fed’s Board of Governors than any president since then.
That’s pretty amazing when you think about it.
To review, the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors is made up of seven appointees. That means that they can make a majority decision with four votes. If you’re reading about the Fed, you might also see reference to “regional reserve bank presidents.” These are roles within the Federal Reserve System, but the real power is found on seven-member Board of Governors.
Trump will own the Fed.
The real question is who owns Trump.... he certainly has his coterie of New York Billionaires and
being and affable, jovial guy who is very smart..... He is able to help those he wants to help and hurt the big money players..... like the day he flippantly said that maybe the US should let Puerto Rico default on it's general obligation bonds and they fell 50% in a day.... Someone way long a bunch of those and someone was there to buy them at firesale prices.
The man and woman on the street has no clue how DJT can impact market outcomes with these
of the cuff remarks....... and the comedians like Seth Myers.. who does not know the first thing
fiancial instruments, wealth management.... how financial markets are really a high stakes game
of Texas no hold'em. Myers and some of these media types are probably on the payroll to make
DJT seem like a bumbler...
Meaning, whatever the president wants monetary policy to be, he’ll get. In other words, Donald Trump will be able to shape the Fed’s majority. But the tricky part is figuring out how he plans to shape it…
During the campaign season, Trump called China and other nations currency manipulators. That signaled he believed the dollar was too strong and wanted it to weaken. But then the North Korean nuclear crisis rose to the fore.
Trump backed off his threats against China because China has the most economic influence over North Korea, and Trump wanted China to use that leverage to convince the North to back off its nuclear program.
But China didn’t deliver as Trump had hoped, and a trade war with China is now likely. That’s especially true now. Chinese president Xi Jinping has solidified his hold on power after the Chinese Politburo re-appointed him yesterday. Xi had avoided rocking the boat in recent months while his position was uncertain. But now that his lock on power is secure, Xi can afford to be much more confrontational with Trump.
Trump’s trade policy has led many to believe that Trump will appoint a lot of “doves” to the Board. But don’t be surprised if Trump goes with a hard-money board. In fact, that’s what I expect. These will be hard-money, strong-dollar people, contrary to a lot of expectations.
Trump advisers include hard-money advocates like Dr. Judy Shelton, David Malpass, Steve Moore and Larry Kudlow. I expect Trump to heed their advice.
Which brings us to Janet Yellen and the next Federal Reserve Chair…
Janet Yellen’s term as chair is up at the end of January — just over three months from now. Whoever President Trump appoints to replace her will be subject to Senate confirmation.
Because that process takes time, that means the president has to name Yellen’s successor around November or December.
And again, he’s expected to make that announcement by Nov. 3, before he heads to China.
The market is tightly focused on President Trump’s pick. As of October 23, betting markets had the approximate probabilities as follows:
Jay Powell — 51%
Janet Yellen — 17%
John Taylor — 15%
Kevin Warsh — 11%
Gary Cohn — 4%
Neel Kashkari — 2%
My bet is on John Taylor......... he is the chosen one... but the real question is exactly what do we want the
FED to do....How do we want them to conduct monetary policy.. beyond the generally reasonable proposition of working towards normalization of interest rates.
what you want the FED to do really depends on what outcome and economic opportunities the people who
get to have input and get their wishes fulfilled want....
John |
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