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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum
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To: Thomas Haegin who wrote (580)1/9/1998 12:09:00 PM
From: Worswick  Read Replies (1) of 9980
 
The Moody's conference started a half hour late: the free call back number to hear the whole conference (in the US) 1-800-759-4358: international, I believe (since it was delivered very fast was) 402-220-9721.

In sum the feeling was that Japanese banks have precipitated this crisis... as their own country went into crisis Japanese banks with large short term loans outstanding cut off credits in Korea and SE Asia. Other thoughts, "Korea is a fundamentally strong country...with a question for the country if the short term credit problem is solved of liquidity and not solvecy."

Further to this, however: "The problem is... that all the (domestic) interbank ratings keep sinking. As the interbank rating sink so, as a trend, do the bond ratings of the soverign debt..." There was feeling the countries would not default on their bond obligations as this would create enormous legal problems, not mention problems of fiscal credibility.

The feeling was that like a rubber band the economies of the region would snap back (oh, my god the old rubber band effect Sankar) if the problems were dealt with now. If they weren't... good heavens!

Interestingly, most of the callers to the Moody's forum were insurance companies who seem to be holding a lot of emergent market paper and these people were ripped.

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