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Technology Stocks : QUANTUM
QNTM 8.300-4.5%Dec 26 9:30 AM EST
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To: Gottfried who wrote (6974)1/9/1998 1:20:00 PM
From: Rob S.  Read Replies (1) of 9124
 
I think we are in a "sweet & sour" market that will be rocked by bad or good news. On the one hand interest rates are very low, leaving few viable alternatives to achieve returns outside of the equities markets, on the other hand, certain sectors and stocks are getting slammed by product oversupply and price deflation caused by the international gambit to massively build out Asian suppliers - a formula that has driven the entire region into massive debt. I think that there is more bad news in the pipeline for the semi equips as Asian custoemrs cancel orders and shut down plants. I got an e-amil a few days ago from someone working at a semi equip - he said that some large Asian customers were refusing to take equipment that was ready to ship. They are just refusing to pay for it or pay any penalties. The equip guys have little choice but to accept these abrubt cancellations. Wheras the conference calls last quarter were positive, I expect them to be negative this quarter and cast even more fear on the sector. I think it will be at least nine moths before the order rates start to grow again. It may be time to invest in the sector in as short as 2-3 months - after the stocks are down another 20%-30%.
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