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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: E_K_S who wrote (60007)	11/24/2017 7:14:33 PM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (1) of 78711

Domtar Corporation (UFS) - closed out position w/ sale today @ $47.12/share CVR Partners, LP (UAN) - upped my position by 25% w/ Buy @ $3.01/share (UAN $5.38/share BV; $0.81/share EBITDA considering multi year low in fertilizer (UAN) prices, $0.46/share cash) UFS GN valuation model says this one is at/near fair value at $44.50, so today's sell is +5% above that amount. I held position for 14 months and booked a 27% gain not including the 3.5% dividend. UFS is a paper company w/ good assets but going through a transition of converting their business/magazine paper division to adult (paper) diapers. My basket of paper stocks now only include TIS and KMB. Each have their own story. I have held KMB for over 7 years w/ all of my Buys in March & April 2010. Stock almost a double in 7 years (that's a 10% annual return w/ div). My plan is to look at another Buy in TIS after I harvest 50% of KMB and/or see if there might be any other undervalued paper companies through the GN screener. UAN Continue to lower my avg cost of UAN w/ today's buy. The comapny is still marginally profitable even w/ multi year lows in fertilizer prices. This is a true sector/cycle stock w/ good assets. If/when fertilizer prices begin to rise, margins s/d expand and company will be quite profitable. One error I am making is not building a basket of these fertilizer companies but staying w/ UAN one of Ichan's largest holdings. Just hope he does not try to take it private as it is selling at 0.57x BV. EKS

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