WDC, NAND, NVM, enterprise storage systems, etc. Message Board

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Technology Stocks : WDC, NAND, NVM, enterprise storage systems, etc.

SNDK 223.28

+3.8%

Nov 28 9:30 AM EST

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To: bigchad who wrote (3234)	11/27/2017 1:20:08 PM
From: Sam	of 4833

"We will not know the answer to the question for sure until the end of Q1 when chip demand starts to pick up again, after the normal slow season and then we could then say that it was just the normal seasonal pattern in a longer term secular growth trend." Actually, Q2 is often just as weak and sometimes even weaker than Q1. Demand starts to pick up again in June or July. On the other hand, if TTID, then demand shouldn't drop as much as usual and should pick up more quickly than usual. But recent strength has been so strong that it may obscure the weakness. That is, the fall may look worse because it is coming from higher highs. On the third hand, the lows should be higher too and that would be a TTID tell. And any losses that the companies suffer should be brief and shallow. If there are any losses at all; Micron forecast an annual gain even during cyclical troughs. All of the above speculation presumes that Huberty is correct in predicting "quarterly"losses of 15-17% in NAND. And of course she conveniently didn't say how many quarters she was talking about, at least not in the excerpts we have been treated to.

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