BS, I've never said no new jobs show up. Of course they will. You are the one failing to consider the math of how it works. Old jobs being eliminated and new jobs being created in and of itself does tell us anything about net employment and income inequality. All I'm saying is I expect to see a continuation and in fact an acceleration of production, sales, profit etc being concentrated to fewer jobs (and sure some of those jobs will be good paying, and the owners of the business will do spectacularly, look at Bezos) based on emerging AI/ML and it should be clear that this AI/ML technology is at an inflection point, only 5 years ago it was mostly research, and now many commercial products are emerging which are just the tip of the iceberg. Many more products will emerge in a few more years and over the next decade plus.
Take self-driving cars. The total number of engineers developing the technology is not that great. How many drivers will they put out of work? What will those engineers do once the technology is largely mature? There is not a one-one correspondence between the jobs created to bring this new technology to fruition vs the number of jobs it will eliminate. The ratio will be orders of magnitude to 1. And the same will hold true for many of the applications being developed. Once Watson beats 99.99% of Radiologists on 99.99% of the images they look at, what job will exist for Radiologists, and how many developers are needed to do this vs how many Radiologists will have no job? I would expect some increase in employment for MRI companies and possibly Radiology techs, because as the cost of scans and interpreting the images plummets, scans will become much more used. This is good. Nonionizing radiation and it could be huge for preventative medicine. So its an example of how things can get better with this technology for society as a whole. The claims that Medicare is going to bankrupt the USA is complete BS because all those projections are completely clueless about what is happening. So again, this is great. But the same thing is going to happen to most jobs, it won't just be Radiologists.
BTW, if you don't believe me on Radiologists just Google on the subject. Plenty of those in the profession are paying attention, and of course there are plenty in complete denial. But lots of them see the writing on the wall.
This is from a site in that industry:
radiologybusiness.com
They of course think there is a path for them to stay relevant, with an argument that they should really not be reading images but doing "higher level" stuff, which of course falls flat because an expert system can do that part better than they can too. |
