INDEX UPDATE
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Correct me if I am wrong, but the economic numbers were interpreted as in line and not deflationary, which now appears to be the fear of the market rather than inflation, on the basis that Greenspan will not increase rates due the Asian Currency problems.
If I am correct, then what sent the the markets diving Friday was the fear of the Asian flu mainly. In light of that I would like to talk about how the Asian markets will do this weekend before the open on Monday.
Korea is up huge this morning at 6.4%. KS11 is 18.4% above its bottom. The candlestic formation was a White Marubozu, which is a large body with no lower or upper shadow. Such normally indicates upward continuation for the next day; therefore Korea should be up tomorrow.
As I indicated previously, N225(Japan) already started its reversal Friday, since it was a white day which many do not realise. The media only indicated that it was down 24 points from the previous day, but did not inform that it was actually positive for the day, since it gapped down. Due to the gapping down it was a RAINDROP, and is normally the beginning of an MORNING STAR, which is a major reversal signal. Japan should be up tomorrow also.
I cannot get technical charts on the HSI(Hong Kong) but can get the charts on the EWH(Hong KONG), and it is a CLASS 1 BUY with a reversal for as early as tomorrow.
Singapore (based on EWS) is a CLASS 1 BUY with reversal as early as tomorrow. It was also a RAINDROP which normally leads to a MORNING STAR.
MAlaysia (based on EWM) is a CLASS 1 BUY with reversal as early as tomorrow. It is basicly the same as Singapore with a RAINDROP.
It appears to me that there is a good chance that we may have reversals on most of the Asian markets with some being major and prior to Monday's open.
As for our markets, what was worse than the DOW's performance yesterday was the NASDAQ's performance, which in earlier sessions was leading the overall market up in the last rally. The SOX is already back/near its 52 week low just set recently. Without going into all the details, the NAZ can set lower lows on a technical basis. I mention that since many feel that the NAZ has bottomed. Hypothetically, and I am not yet saying that it will, if the DOW was to drop lets say 500 points more, the NAZ most definitly will also drop, but it would just drop at a slower pace.
My trading range of 7550-8100 is still holding and in light of the possibility that the ASIAN markets will be up tomorrow and that basicly our whole market is a CLASS 1 BUY, I think that we should be up on Monday and maybe right from the open. The ClASS 1 BUY-IN day is Monday at the low of the day, where ever that is.
For the short-term, we are in a downtrend which is obvious, and any rally will not be all that strong. The triangle which I had mentioned earlier is basicly broken now, so I am no longer targeting for the APEX at 7850. 7850 may now be the top of the range, which I need to research further.
It is obvious also, that the market is waiting for the earnings/forward statements to come out, from that we should have a more defined direction, but for the interim we are in a downtrend and the immediate reversal could be relatively weak.
Seeya |
