Esteban,
I ain't going nowhere. I was just accentuating my point: If you keep the cathouse clean, your cats won't misfire (very mixed metaphor). Let's take SGI as an example: After yesterday, it's $.25 away from "signaling" again, at least it volume goes up radically, which it quite well may, as the last few days of CLASSIC retreat from a prior signal have happened on low volume.
OK: On Monday, good market or bad, let's say SGI goes down into the tens, then starts rising toward the end. Esteban, look at that chart, look at that @#$%ing head-and-shoulders chart, and tell me you'd play SGI as a "signal day" at the close of business on Monday. According to the strict rules, you'd have to: It's a new low on high volume, and it's closing off the low. It's a signal day. No, it isn't. It's a classic case of a head-and-shoulders breakdown. Take a look at NKE; they're the last place you want to have a long position.
Same thing with ORCL: If you play ORCL, given similar conditions on Monday--more lows, then a close up, and (somehow) higher volume--you might well go up the next day, you might very well go down. I'd say the odds are about 50/50. That is what I mean by being attracted to the PGDCEB play by its %100ness. Maybe (even probably) 100% is an exaggeration. As the standard by which you and I can formulate rules for making the play, however, I feel it's quite acceptable: So I propose:
Rule Number Whatever: Any cat "signal" day that does not perform as was expected (let's say by both of us, plus any card-carrying 56er who can PREDICT the failure) must be identified as a "type," and that type shall be forever banished from the cattery.
Well, maybe not forever, but ...
Ivan |
