As I have been saying
oops. strike that. Sorry I was a trifle pedantic yesterday. An old friend from the fine County of Armagh died yesterday and I was bummed out. Now that I've successfully bummed you out,
Believe it or nuts, it's a 'true fact' that the worst day in any given month to be short is the day of the full moon. (wuf, wuf). I learned this from the trader on the program trading site. I believe there is even a commentary on the site about it. Postulating this on a discussion group, RealTraders, provoked a trader in Texas to backtest the theory/fact. He found it to be correct.
Now, just because it's works some high percentage of the time does not mean it will happen Monday. Statistically, however, that would be the way to bet.....short puts for example on an early selloff and close 'em out before the final bell.
Also (statistically) the best days to be short are the trading days before, after, and 3 days after a full moon. Eerie stuff, but if it is so and one picks the correct point to enter it certainly takes the guesswork out, doesn't it?
As far as what point the market shall turn up from a gap down or if it does not gap down at all is a good question. If I had to estimate the time based on patterns I would say the best time to position myself would be the open. |
