Ron: Surprised at how many of my $20-30 stocks are down $1 to $2+. May be only down a couple of percentage points on the indexes, but it sure feels much downer than that in my portfolios. Okay, I'll venture an opinion on the US stock market - it's going to recover. (This said in an optimistic mood, and before I go over to Barron's On-Line to get their usual (IMO) discouraging commentaries and negative prognostications.) I think US citizens are flush with money and have no place to put it for returns they want and for returns they expect other than in the stock market. There's no competition. Real estate, precious metals, gems... forget it. Bonds offer safety (maybe) and peace of mind (maybe). But at under 6% they're not right for the times IMO (unless you're speculating on continued fall of interest ratres). Well, we're all antsy because we've been told 3 consecutive years of up gains like this is a record, and we're told that the market is high and the market is risky. And stocks better go up the first 5 days of the year or it's trouble for the whole year. For anyone trying to get ahead (and I am surprised at how many of us older guys are still trying to do this!)owning stocks is now and still the only game around (unless you start your own business). Money coming out of market by funds which are selling, they will
redeploy back. Individuals getting flummoxed by ups/downs of individual stocks they own will move to more ownership of mutual funds where the effect is netted out by the overall portfolio (except on days like yesterday -g-). Asian problems will get worse: it's one thing to push down on poor people who haven't had a venue for improving their lives; quite another (IMO) to try to reduce expectations of improving poor and middle classes who have got a taste for the goodies of capitalism. Especially in Asia (I opine) where lowering one's standard of living may be like losing face --- something that must not happen. Therefore, I predict that - unlike with Mexico, the Asians won't go quietly --- but go they will.
Meanwhile I try (not too successfully sometimes -g-) to stay the course. On this thread, for me it is: buy undervalued stocks and sell them when they become fully valued. Regardless of the overall market. Yesterday I sold nothing. I did add to my position in ELAMF. I started a very small position in TIMT, a titanium supplier to Boeing. Planes will be built, titanium will be consumed, profits will be earned (I hope). I like TIMT's locked-in growth (my margin of safety), price in low half of it's yearly range, sorta-ok pe, ROE (which is better than Boeing's I think), and the fact it's now owned by several very savy mutual funds (or was until yesterday -g-). I don't like that it's controlled by a wheeler-dealer guy whose family apparently is fighting with him over control. And stock may be more "reasonably valued" now than "undervalued". Overall though, I bet TIMT profits double in 3-4 years; stock price should do okay too. JMO, of course. Paul |
