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Politics : Idea Of The Day
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To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (16274)1/10/1998 12:59:00 PM
From: Logain Ablar  Read Replies (4) of 50167
 
Hi Ike:

Hope all is well. The flu bug hit home this week (literally, not stocks).

Watched Abbey Cohen last night on Wall Street Week unless you obtain her reports from Goldman here is what I remember.

1) She is bullish. Thinks the Asian issue to U.S. stocks is overblown. Should be a benefit in long term.

2) Forecasts an 8% earnings increase to S&P 500 for 1998. With earnings multiple of 18 on this. Expects the Dow to reach 8700.
She commented that in periods of low inflation and low interest rates S&P has traded up to 22 to 24 times earnings. Wasn't clear on whether this was current year multiple (which I assume) or prior year.

3) Feels foreigners (Asian's) will be investing more in U.S. Both equities and bonds.

4) Feels bonds will increase more as rates may go down another auarter to half point before stablizing and maybe increasing late in year as Asia stablizes.

5) Last weeks drop with no leadership. Expects rocky road until investor nervousness subsides. Expects earnings in next few weeks to help calm market. She expects earnings to be better than people think (after Asian flu).

Louis R commented that she is usually conservative in her forecasts.
She smiled and said that is her nature (not exact words).

6) Louis asked for stocks and she mentioned two she liked People Soft and Micron Technology.

She also mentioned the $$ (I forget but she was not overly concerned with its strength BUT I hope someone else can comment on this).

Other panelest (2) liked financial sector (Chase, Citibank and others) (1) mentioned AMAT and were bullish in that there are some values out there even thought the market is violatle right now.

We'll I hope I didn't misrepresent the show too much. We know I'm biased on the bullish side.

Tim
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