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Biotech / Medical : North American Vaccine
NVX 1.045-7.9%Jan 29 3:59 PM EST

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To: Don W Stone who wrote (200)1/10/1998 1:17:00 PM
From: Don W Stone  Read Replies (2) of 507
 
Subject: WHY THE PRESS RELEASE?

Now that is a good question. Was it necessary that NVX release this information? After all they are interacting with the FDA , exchanging information on a daily basis. They certainly have not been releasing status reports on their FDA activity to date. They say in this press release that they aren't going to in the near future either.
The answer I was told to this question was this: Obviously the NVX stockholder was of the mind that FDA approval is "imminant" and that now was not the case.
Dr. Sharon Mates will be speaking on Tueday , Jan 14 at a closed medical conference sponsored by Hambreck and Quist. She will surely be asked when does she expect FDA approval. The press release is being proactive. Remember last time it was at an Octoberr'97 Medical conference sponsored by UBS that the question was posed and that set off the present expectation schedule of " by year end". ( That is a specific
date) . This time you get " during first quarter '98 , or shortly thereafter. (note: not locked to mar31, pretty clever wouldn't you say?)
I guest it can be assumed that if the H & Q Conference wasn't scheduled there just mite not have been a release at this time.
As most of you are aware NVX is an institutionally held stock. Only a very few shares are held in private accounts. The input I am hearing is the institutions find the news as very POSITIVE, " a buying opportunity".
Now that I have talked to alot of investors I personnally feel i am guilty of making to much of this press release. The dealings that have been going on before between the FDA and NVX I am sure were more dramatic but fortunately we were sheilded from them.
Going for an FDA license i am convinced is about providing information to the FDA as requested until the requests run dry. Do that and you get approval.
How the stock will act on Monday is anybodies guess but i would say it will be a wait see with the shorts trying to send it down. Tuesday should be strong I would think.H & Q attendees will love NVX and by then the reality of just how positive the news is now at NVX will begin to sink in.
After all we do have our first real status report on whats up with the FDA. I do think many in attendance at H & Q will read thru what Dr. Sharon Mates has to say and will recognize that NVX is about to get up on a roll sometime in the next two quarters. :-}
Approval may not be imminent but this release does say that NVX is on a very steady and solid track to meeting their goals. I have talked to quite a few who are more convinced now than them ever have been of just how successful this little comnpany is going to be in the fast growing vaccine business. :-}
Hang in there. Don't let anyone try to trick you into making an emotional decision at this late date. The smart shorts will be covering on monday. Come tuesday the NVX bulls will be leading the pack, big time IMO. :-}
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