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Biotech / Medical : Trillium Therapeutics

TRIL 20.36

+2.0%

Nov 26 2:56 PM EST

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To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (126)	12/18/2017 3:11:08 PM
From: semi_infinite	Read Replies (1) of 294

I had 3 scenarios before buying some (1) complete failure due to SAEs - prob guess 0.33, (2) continuation of 3 yards and a cloud of dust - prob guess 0.66 (3) conclusive miraculous results - prob guess 1/100. We ended up a little better than (2) because of skin lesion results, CR on combo and no SAEs. I see some negative comments because of small N and that $500K CAR-T drugs conclusively show better response. Both true. The stock moved from 4.9 to 13.3 in 2 months so I would say some good news has been credited. My POV was that some mean reversion would occur and I acted accordingly. I have no idea what the proper mean is but somewhere between 8 and 9 (arithmetic and geometric means) are as good as any. Short term traders rule for now.

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