Anyway, she seemed to me like a complacently optimistic aunt...
Of course if we'd made as much money as Abby has doing what she does we'd probably be pretty complacent, too. (I recently read something suggesting that between salary and bonus she earns more than $20 million a year.) And of course she has quite a good record (but as they say in another sector of the biz, you're only as good as your last trade).
What I see as a very real problem, though, is the nearly universal bullish bias of brokerage firms and investment banks. Their business is, after all, to sell securities. While brokers (and their own advisers) may occasionally recommend shorting a particular stock, or even briefly shorting the market, don't expect 'em to come out and say "Hey! We're gonna go into the toilet! Sell sell sell!!!".
Of course to some extent their own actions, and perennial optimism (what a great buying opportunity!), determine what actually happens in the markets: if, say, they're all prepared to buy INTC at 65, then probably INTC will bounce off that level. What they can't do anything about is unexpected problems like the Asia mess. What if that hadn't happened? What would the scenario be now? Fewer earnings worries, but more concern about inflation. Would the effect on the market have been the same? Who knows?
And as for what'll happen next, well, you got me. The Dow broke important support Friday, but will it sink below about 7200? Or will it bounce off its October lows? Stay tuned... |
