Rough numbers for share price after guidance:
I am guesstimating the guidance, and effect on market cap. I've assumed Fosterville is guided to 360K ounces/year, with cash costs dropping to 250. Macassa up slightly to 210k ounces/year. Taylor up to 63k with the richer grades, Holt staying at 67k, and 20k out of a re-started Cosmo with cash cost 800. I have assumed half of the Fosterville increase is already "baked into" the share price. OK, at gold 1290, ratio-ing profits based on the cash cost differences (and ignoring increased taxes), that gives us a market cap of $3.55B with share price $16.92, as compared to $3.0B at today's $14.30 share price.
Again VERY rough back of the envelope guesstimate.
Makuch has said Fosterville will hit 400k ounces/year, BEFORE they hit the rich ore of the Swan Zone, and that Macassa will hit 400K ounces/year, once the new shaft is built. I'm assuming 50k year out of a restarted Cosmo, given the grades in the recent release. I'm also adding the 52K ounces/year, at 840 cash cost, from the 116% IRR Newmarket had for Maud Creek. That's right nearby, and Union Reef is a 5000 t/d mill, so it's reasonable to assume Kirkland will start both. (BTW, the Maud Creek capex is only $42M, and it's a 9.5 year mine life.). I'm assuming Taylor hits 75K ounces a year, based on the great drill results from yesterday - though I bet this is the one that outperforms. Holt continues at 67K/year. This scenario gets us to $4.9B cap, and share price of $23.1 US. That's at gold 1290 US. At gold 1190, the cap drops to $4.3B; and at gold 1390, the cap is $5.4B.
Wild-**s guesses. I am not an investment professional (duh). I am heavily-invested in KL, and am very biased. Do your own due diligence. |
