Rainier - I have enjoyed your analysis, and wonder if you would take a
look at two stocks that seems to be moving into an uptrend, but with
very different charts. I would also like to know if you think my
analysis is reasonable so far.
First, DTOP: 8 5/8
Long term downtrend broken on 7/1/97.
Mild uptrend defined by lows on 4/24/97 and 12/19/97.
OBV climbed above it's LT 90 dma on 12/30/97 and has stayed above it.
LT MACD 13,34,89 crossed over signal line on 12/30/97 and crossed
zero on 1/5/98
LT Stochastic 55,21 crossed it's 21 dma on 12/30 but has not yet
crossed 20
Volume has NOT increased appreciably.
The lowest low since April was on 12/22/97 and was followed by a
higher low on 1/6/98
Moving averages: 10 is above 20. 20 is now crossing the 30 to the
upside. 10 and 20 are still below 50 and 50 is below 130 pma.
Short term indicators:
Stochastics 13,8,8 is around 70 and looks to be turning down.
MACD 12,26,9 is way above signal and is above zero.
RSI 14 is right at it's 19 dma.
MoneyFlow turned positive on 12/22/97 for the first time since
8/12/97.
Our new trendline from 4/18/97 to 12/11/97 says support is at 6 1/2,
recent high is resistance at 9 1/4, then 12 or so.
Bollinger bands are expanding with the central 20 dma forming IT'S
support at about 7 5/8, band resistance at 9 5/8 to 9 3/4.
Trailing PE is about 21.
Strategy: Wait for pullback and new turn that brings ST stochastics
down, then points it up, likely at one of the two supports mentioned
above. Do you agree? When would YOU buy this?
The second one is LTI: 36 7/8
Last uptrend formed by close on 4/16/97 and 7/1/97 (the sustainable
one). Most recent trendline from 7/21/97 to 1/6/98. Basing pattern
after rapid rise broke all uptrend lines associated with that rise.
Three month basing period formed slight downtrend that was violated to
the upside on 1/7/98.
OBV has been above it's 90 dma since 6/11/97 except a brief dip under
on 1/5 and a recovery on LT on 1/8/98.
MACD 13,34,89 has been above zero since 6/6/97 except for a bried dip
11/11/97 and recovery 11/28/97. It is currently above signal line and
above zero.
LT Stochastic 55,21 crossed it's 21 dma on 12/16 and is now 60 or 70.
Volume has been greatly increased for the last 5 days, , and for the
last three days it has grown daily and has been accompanied by rising
prices.
The second-last low was 11/2/97 with a higher low on 1/2/98.
Moving averages: 10 is above 20. 20 is above 30, 30 is above 50 they
are well above the 130 pma.
Short term indicators:
Stochastics 13,8,8 is around 35 and is pointing up and is above it's
ma.
MACD 12,26,9 is way above signal and is above zeroand less than recent
past highs.
RSI 14 is above it's 19 dma at about 80.
MoneyFlow is negative but improving.
Our new trendline from 11/19/97 to 1/2/98 says support is at about 31
1/2, and there is no resistance, as it is at new highs.
Bollinger bands are expanding with the central 20 dma forming IT'S
support at about 33. Price has been above the 2/2 bands for two days.
Trailing PE is about 9.6.
Strategy: Wait for pullback and new turn that brings price into the
bands, then turns up again, likely at one of the two supports mentioned above. Do you agree? When would YOU buy this?
Do you LIKE these two?
I look forward to your comments.
-Al Greenleaf |
