30/ Because Mueller has in his back pocket every action Papadopoulos ever took for Trump's campaign and anything Trump ever said to Papadopoulos—as Papadopoulos is a cooperating witness—of *key* importance is whether Papadopoulos spoke directly to Trump and what authority he had.
31/ Today's news in the NYT gives us new information on both questions. But first, consider the contact we *know* Papadopoulos had with Trump at the TIHDC meeting on March 31, 2016. Here's the second of three threads I did on that subject many weeks ago:
Seth AbramsonVerified account @SethAbramson
(THREAD) BREAKING: The thesis discussed at the link below has been confirmed—and it's a smoking gun on collusion. twitter.com …
Show this thread
32/ And here's the third thread I did on this subject, back in November. Together, these threads—and the major-media reports they cite—confirm that Trump's aides *lied* about what happened at the TIHDC to *hide* Trump's level of contact with Papadopoulos.
Seth AbramsonVerified account @SethAbramson
(THREAD) CONFIRMED: Top Trump aides lied to Fox News (of all places) to hide what Trump knew of Papadopoulos' offer to set up Putin meeting.
Show this thread
33/ Trump wants us to think he only spoke with Papadopoulos on March 31, 2016—calling him a "low-level volunteer few people knew." But in early November, five days after we learned of Papadopoulos' plea, I decided to hunt through Greek media to see what they said of Papadopoulos.
34/ Of those who follow this feed, about 100,000 chose to follow immediately after I began writing threads about Papadopoulos—including *Papadopoulos himself*. This feed is 1 of 92 Papadopoulos follows—1 of 58 political journalists or media organizations—and I think I know why.
35/ By reading through all Greek media articles about Papadopoulos in early November—research I worked with POLITICO to help it pick up—I discovered things unknown about the Trump-Papadopoulos connection in the United States. Beginning with this bombshell:
Seth AbramsonVerified account @SethAbramson
(THREAD) BREAKING: Trump Aide George Papadopoulos Had Extensive Secret Contact With Putin Ally, May Have Met Putin in Athens in May of 2016
Show this thread
36/ That's right—after his success initiating Trump-Kremlin sanctions negotiations in April, Papadopoulos wanted to move to the next stage, which was arranging a meeting. The question is whether he had authority from Trump to do so. American media largely bought Trump's line: no.
37/ What Greek media was reporting was entirely different because Papadopoulos had been *very* chatty in Greek-language interviews with Kathimerini, a New York Times-equivalent publication in Greece. Perhaps Papadopoulos thought his interviews wouldn't make it back to the States.
38/ What Papadopoulos revealed was a) by December '16, he could tell Greek officials that Trump had personally offered him a "blank check" to choose any job in the Trump Administration; b) he was still on the campaign as of the inauguration; c) he'd spoken to Trump several times.
39/ He could also reveal he went to Greece twice in May 2016, both times to make contacts. Greek media found out who he'd met—a list of Greek power-brokers that included Panos Kammenos, a man in an MoU with the Putin think-tank that orchestrated the Russian propaganda campaign.
40/ I then did some hunting around myself, and discovered that during his second May 2016 trip, Papadopoulos was in Athens *the same time Putin was*—Putin's *only* trip to an EU nation during the campaign, and a trip Russian media said Putin was taking to *get sanctions dropped*.
41/ But wait! There's much more. Papadopoulos was in Athens in May as part of Trump's Russia policy team (which he joined April 1) and met with Kammenos—the Putin pal—the same week Putin did. Trump's Russia policy is focused on sanctions—and Putin was in Athens to talk sanctions.
42/ Moreover, Greek media reported that Papadopoulos took his second trip "incognito" and "in secret"—and averred to Greek media that he was meeting with important people, not all of whom he could disclose. And this was a time he was working on setting up a Trump-Putin meeting.
44/ The NYT confirms what I wrote about here when I first started discussing Papadopoulos: he was—and is—a Middle East oil expert who Trump reassigned to Russia policy (by sending him to Israel to discuss Russia policy) within *48 hours* of learning he was a Kremlin intermediary.
45/ So when Papadopoulos boasted in December 2016—apparently accurately—that Trump had offered him a "blank check" for a job (a job he *only* lost after Flynn was caught lying about Russian contacts in late January 2017), he was presumably being rewarded for his work on *Russia*.
46/ Just as Papadopoulos talked Russia policy in Israel, he went to Greece—while Putin was there to meet Kammenos and talk sanctions—for the very same reason as Putin: to meet Kammenos and talk sanctions. Either Kammenos passed messages or Papadopoulos met Putin's aides/Putin.
47/ But before today, it was an open question whether Papadopoulos was ever granted the authority he'd long asked for—to set up a meeting between Trump and a foreign leader. The NYT confirms that Papadopoulos was authorized to set up a meeting between Trump and Egypt's President.
48/ It's no longer possible to think Trump made Papadopoulos a Russia advisor, and offered him a "blank check" job offer, and kept him on his NatSec team for 10 months while firing almost everyone else, *just* because Papadopoulos passed a message on Clinton emails in April 2016.
49/ Papadopoulos announced his goal was to bring a world leader—Putin—and Trump together; he was given authority to set up meetings between Trump and world leaders; he went to Athens "incognito" in late May 2016, while Putin was there, to meet the same people on the same subject.
50/ Thereafter he was kept on the NatSec team—despite some high-profile blunders and even, by his own admission, being involuntarily separated from the campaign in October, as he told Greek media—and offered any job he wanted. So he delivered something. Mueller knows what it was.
51/ The question is whether Papadopoulos had any one-on-one contact with Trump in which such offers were made, and such instructions given—whatever Sessions claims he "forbade" Papadopoulos from doing—and here my research into Greek media found some *critical* answers once again.
52/ As the thread below details, Papadopoulos told Greek media—at a time he was still expecting a job with Trump and Flynn's December crimes hadn't occurred yet—he had a call *and* a one-on-one meeting with Trump before the TIHDC meeting on March 31, 2016.
Seth AbramsonVerified account @SethAbramson
(THREAD) BREAKING: George Papadopoulos claims to have had direct, significant contact with Trump on two occasions the White House never disclosed—and possibly a one-on-one meeting. His claims prove Trump is…
Show this thread
53/ So there's a *reason* that—when Trump announced Papadopoulos as a member of his NatSec team—Papadopoulos was the *only* member announced at that time who Trump *personally vouched for*—something mainstream media never caught. He vouched for Papadopoulous because he'd met him.
54/ That call and one-on-one meeting—the latter happening, per Papadopoulos, at the then-unfinished TIHDC—both occurred *after* Russia had made its first contact with Papadopoulos. Does anyone think Papadopoulos ignored his Kremlin instructions and didn't pass a message to Trump?
55/ So when Rep. Lieu (House Intel Committee) wrote, today, that Mueller knows much more than we do, this is just what he means: Mueller knows the content of Papadopoulos' personal conversations with Trump, and what steps Trump let Papadopoulos take to negotiate with the Kremlin.
56/ Moreover, Mueller knows what the NYT reported today establishes *Papadopoulos* as the linchpin of Trump's sometimes private, sometimes public—always illegal and collusive—sanctions-for-aid negotiation and deal with the Russians. Papadopoulos can and has established collusion.
57/ With all that established, let's return to the NYT story inexplicably billed as no more than a retort to the millionth lie Trump has told on his ties to Russia and the Steele Dossier. We knew *in November* Papadopoulos helped edit the Mayflower Speech:
Seth AbramsonVerified account @SethAbramson
BREAKING: The New York Times appears to be reporting that George Papadopoulos helped write the April 2016 "Mayflower Speech," in which Trump offered Russia a "good deal" on sanctions, and did so *after* revealing himself to Trump as a Kremlin intermediary. …
Show this thread
58/ Readers of this feed knew in September—and readers of major media by November—that Trump had lied about Papadopoulos being a low-level volunteer Trump campaign staff hardly knew, given the trips he took abroad as a Trump rep to meet foreign officials
Seth AbramsonVerified account @SethAbramson
(THREAD) BREAKING: In May '16, after months of selling a Trump-Kremlin meet to Team Trump, Papadopoulos secretly went to Athens to meet a Putin ally. Putin was then in Athens meeting the same man—the only 48…
Show this thread
59/ We even knew, 3 weeks ago, that Papadopoulos had had contacts with Flynn (Trump's top foreign policy/NatSec advisor) and Bannon (Trump's top domestic advisor) Trump hid, and that his trips (e.g. Greece) were *pre-authorized* by the campaign—a key fact.
Seth AbramsonVerified account @SethAbramson
BREAKING: George Papadopoulos told his fiancee he was in contact with Bannon and Flynn and that all his meetings with foreign officials—some Kremlin-connected—were campaign-authorized. He says he flipped once Mueller showed him how vast the conspiracy was. …
60/ We know the early bits of the Dossier went to the FBI—not CIA—in July 2016, as did (that same month) news of an Australian diplomat's run-in with Papadopoulos. But it was the *CIA*—who we now know had Kislyak bugged—who raised the alarm in August 2016.
61/ We know when Brennan raised an alarm in mid-2016 he knew of "multiple" Trump camp-Russia contacts, and we know from other reports multiple European intel agencies offered the CIA such intel. So the idea it was all the Dossier the FBI had is *nonsense*.
62/ So if the "It wasn't the Dossier that started the Russia probe, Mr. Trump!" angle the NYT took isn't actually a scoop, and if much else in today's NYT article was already known as of last month, why is this article such a big, breaking-news deal? Well, here's why, in summary:
63/ 1. Papadopoulos' boasts were *true*. True when made to an Australian, *and* true when made to Greeks. That's now accepted. 2. At least one foreign intel agency knew of the Russia plot in April 2016—two months before Christopher Steele sent (pro bono) *anything* to the FBI.
64/ 3. Media is finally conceding what attorneys have been saying for months now: because stealing Clinton's emails was a federal crime, the Trump campaign was unable to reward—or negotiate any unilateral benefit with—Russia once it had that knowledge without it being collusion.
[ I believe the correct legal term is accessory after the fact. I speculate that stealing emails is a crime in whatever states the servers were in as well. ]
65/ 4. Media now concedes Trump himself—not merely Trump aides—lied about Papadopoulos' role with his campaign after it was revealed Papadopoulos told Mueller everything he knows. And Trump specifically lied to hide that Papadopoulos was authorized to set up high-level meetings.
66/ 5. Media now concedes what independent journalists have previously noted—Papadopoulos was switched to Trump's Russia team *immediately* after he told Trump he was a Kremlin intermediary, though it wasn't his area of expertise. And this was intended as a *signal* to Russia.
67/ 6. We now know Papadopoulos' "goal" was to set a meeting between Trump and Putin or Trump aides—like himself—and Putin aides. We know he was authorized to set up a high-level meet of the former sort and had the opportunity for the latter sort of meeting in Athens in May '16.
68/ 7. We know Papadopoulos—who had nearly no experience—somehow got an interview with *Trump National Co-Chair Sam Clovis* within days of his old boss Ben Carson conceding during the primary. We now know he had sufficient ties with Sergei Millian that could've facilitated this.
69/ 8. We know from this March '17 article in The Independent (UK) that Millian was not only close to Papadopoulos but told a source of Christopher Steele's that stolen Russian information *was* given to Papadopoulos and it *was* given to Donald Trump himself and it *was* used.
70/ 9. We know Papadopoulos was in touch with RIAC head Ivan Timofeev by April 2016, and the RIAC appears to be known to the CNI, which hosted the Mayflower Speech Papadopoulos helped write and invited Kislyak (breaching diplomatic protocol) to hear it.
71/ 10. We know the NYT inexplicably cites participants in the TIHDC meeting for the proposition that Trump "deferred" to Sessions on a meeting with Putin, though those participants the NYT trusts are known—see The Daily Beast—to have lied about what occurred during the meeting.
72/ 11. We know Sessions' claim the campaign thought Papadopoulos "too unqualified" to set up a key foreign meeting is bunk, as within 48 hours it sent him to Israel to meet important foreign leaders, then Greece, then let him set up Trump's meeting with the Egyptian President.
73/ 12. We know, from the NYT, Trump's National Co-Chair Clovis "encouraged" a known Kremlin intermediary he'd inexplicably kept on the NatSec team to go to Moscow *post-hacking* to negotiate sanctions with the Russians, which fact alone—if we knew *nothing else*—*is* collusion.
74/ 13. We know Trump asked multiple agents of the Russians—not just Papadopoulos but Burt—to craft the Russia policy he unveiled at the Mayflower. It seems clear the campaign orchestrated Kislyak hearing that speech *and* meeting Trump as a VIP before it.
75/ 14. And we know Jeff Sessions lied under oath about his contacts with *both* George Papadopoulos and Richard Burt, which is why I've said for months now that Sessions is a "LVL2" target for Mueller along with Kushner, Trump Jr., Manafort, and Flynn.
76/ 15. We know, from the NYT, that Stephen Miller—who helped orchestrate Comey's firing, obstructing the Russia probe—was instrumental in promoting Papadopoulos as a Russia surrogate. It's *wildly* implausible those two facts aren't related. Miller becomes a key Russia witness.
77/ 16. We know Papadopoulos committed a firing offense in causing an international firestorm with England entirely of his own making, and it seems Trump's staff would've wanted the young, inexperienced Papadopoulos fired right then—but someone *above Clovis' level* blocked it.
78/ 17. We know Papadopoulos told Greek media he thought he was temporarily thrown off the campaign—but again, critically, *not fired*—because of an interview he gave with Russian media in September without permission. We know he was asked back—by whom?—days before the election.
79/ 18. We know Papadopoulos was a) impervious to firing, b) the beneficiary of Trump's only "blank check" job offer and c) the *one* person on Team Trump who knew for *certain* Russia had committed crimes and was told this *before* the Mayflower Speech. Three *related facts*.
80/ 19. Papadopoulos helped edit Trump's "good deal for Russia" speech *after* he knew Russia had committed crimes against America. Assuming Papadopoulos passed that key information on to his boss—and *every indication* is he did and Trump *appreciated* it—that's your collusion.
81/ I want to be clear on this: Trump *could not legally authorize* language in the Mayflower Speech offering a "good deal for Russia" and "rewards for our friends" if Papadopoulos had told him Russia had committed federal crimes against America—to do so would be a criminal act.
[ Accessory after the fact. ]
82/ If Papadopoulos confirmed for Mueller what the circumstantial evidence makes clear—that he told Trump Russia had committed crimes, and told Trump this *prior* to Trump delivering his infamous Mayflower Speech—Mueller has evidence of the president committing a collusive crime.
83/ 20. We know within 24 hours of learning Russia had committed crimes, Papadopoulos wrote Miller—his Trump liaison—that he had "interesting messages" from Russia. Of *course* he didn't say what they were over email—the "messages" were knowledge of a crime. Did they chat later?
84/ 21. Miller was at the Mayflower Speech and *helped Papadopoulos write it*. Does *anyone* believe that—while working together on the biggest speech of Trump's life, a speech in big part about Russia—Miller never asked what the "messages" were, and Papadopoulos never told him?
85/ 22. We know—from the NYT—there was an administrative bias at the FBI with a pro-Trump effect: the FBI consciously deviated from investigative protocols to ensure its investigation of Trump didn't harm his chances of victory. Clinton got no such consideration in October 2016.
86/ 23. We know—from the NYT's worst buried lede here, given its headline—that "Steele had shown some of his findings to an FBI agent in Rome [in July 2016], but that information was not part of the justification to start an counterintelligence inquiry, American officials said."
87/ So it's not just that the Australian revelation gave the FBI other grounds to launch a probe, and it's not just that we know the Dossier wasn't enough for a FISA, and it's not just that we know the CIA had other grounds and sources—it's that US officials *say* Trump is wrong.
88/ If the NYT is right—Papadopoulos didn't hear from Trump pal Millian until mid-2016—he met Clovis sans introduction. So to get a job he either played his Russia chit in his Clovis interview or his Trump interview. Which gives him no reason to withhold Russia intel from either.
89/ 24. We now know, from today's NYT article, that there was a *third* pre-inauguration overture to Trump—from Russian agents—about building a "Trump Tower Moscow": the first, from Agalarov in 2013; the second, from IC Expert (Rozov) in 2015; now the third, by Millian, in 2016.
90/ This last NYT scoop—yet another piece of key Russia intel Papadopoulos would have tried to communicate to Trump—gives Trump yet another reason to offer Papadopoulos the reward of a "blank check" job offer and yet another reason to have clandestine one-on-one contact with him.
91/ 25. Finally, the NYT reveals Papadopoulos—a member of the public NatSec team Trump let American voters know about—did indeed have multiple contacts with the head of the "private" NatSec team Trump relied on during the campaign, whose key members were Flynn and Erik Prince.
92/ Remember that, though he began advising Trump in Summer of 2015—Trump aides lie in talking about Flynn only being with Trump for 25 days—Flynn wasn't part of Trump's first *three* "public" NatSec teams (March-July 2016; July 2016-Election Day; Election Day-Christie's firing).
93/ Remember, the NYT didn't see *all* Papadopoulos' emails—just a tiny sampler. Whoever leaked them was trying to preserve the Mueller investigation by giving America just a *taste* of what Mueller has. That taste is enough for experts to see that Mueller has Trump on collusion.
94/ The NYT has confirmed (or brought into higher relief) previously known or—in some cases—previously unknown Russia lies by Trump, Clovis and Sessions. And it strongly suggests that Trump *did* know Don was meeting in Trump Tower with Kremlin agents in June 2016—and about what.
95/ So Papadopoulos can now be seen as potentially sufficient—by himself—to establish Trump's criminal collusion (in the law we'd use the terms "Aiding and Abetting"or "Conspiracy," depending on the statute) and enough circumstantial evidence exists to strongly indicate he *is*.
96/ Moreover, we now have a pattern of lies from Trump, Sessions, and Clovis that *specifically* revolves around the very same presumed (and strongly supported) narrative of what Papadopoulos was to Trump that would explain him being a witness "sufficient" to establish collusion.
97/ The problem we have now is that the New York Times—while doing very good work here—nevertheless buried its lede, credited discredited sources, failed to contextualize its most important contributions, and altogether missed key connections with prior reporting on Papadopoulos.
98/ And the NYT article still misses verifiable independent reporting—for instance, on Papadopoulos going to Athens while Putin was there, or on how Trump campaign explanations for how the Mayflower event came together are provable lies, or on what Papadopoulos told Greek media.
99/ Given today's NYT report, claims there was no collusion between Trump and Russia need to stop—they're irresponsible and deceitful, based on the information we have. You can claim—wrongly—that collusion isn't clear yet, but *no one* can assert a *lack* of collusion is evident.
100/ My estimation, as a legal expert, is that the chances Mueller refers an impeachable offense to DOJ in mid-2018 or thereafter are 90%+. Feel free to check back in with me on that prediction, as it's based on a year of research into all that is now known on this topic. {end} |
