gregor, nice to hear from you. Would you care to comment on the following post from IV?
investorvillage.com
Re: Electric Vehicles Taking Off In China... Gregor McDonald / Gregor is missing the trees for the forest
Those numbers are all hype, Gregor doesn't provide much to compare those "large" numbers to. The amount of solar installed in China is very small compared to the size of the grid...the EV statements just more wishful thinking. Facts matter.
Here some numbers for solar in China - CCB International Securities Ltd. raised its forecast for China’s solar power capacity to 55 gigawatts from 40 gigawatts for 2018. By example coal power generation actually grew by 7% (from Platts) last year to about a total of 67% of total power generation while solar is less than 1% of total power generation. China is now on track to add another 120 gigawatts of coal-fired capacity by 2020, according to Greenpeace, 20 gigawatts of which came online in the first nine months of the year alone. So more than double new coal power generation compared to total installed solar, that should really help their pollution issues. Context is important.
Total renewables in China are about 25% of power generation but nukes and water are the biggest part of that figure, solar and wind total about 3%. No big deal in context. By contrast today Canada is at 66% renewables - thestar.com
As you can see the number of Chinese internal combustion cars manufactured is expected to plateau in 2019 (I think that deserves an exclamation point (!)). I think the overall fleet of internal combustion cars should continue to growth pretty rapidly for a few more years beyond that but then should tail off. This kind of expectation should continue to suppress investment in big long-term oil capex (oil-sands, deep and ultra deep offshort, etc.).
This is just totally misleading, Chinese car production had risen dramatically into 2015 and has been plateauing since, primarily because of capacity restraints and the fact they finally caught up to demand. China went from very little production in the late 90's to 25m by 2015. Despite that car sales in China are expected to climb to 30m annually by 2020 as the rate of ownership increases. Today China is significantly behind the developed world in ownership rates but that gap will close. People that suggest EV's are taking over in China should look at the lousy sales numbers in relation to IC sales, far more hype than reality despite the big subsidies. Oil demand continues to climb yr in and yr out in China, they will need all the help they can get to tamp that over time, EV's a small part of the equation.
Forecasts around the world for EV sales have been mostly hype for a long time, way off the mark, that's a fact. This gap between hype and reality is being driven by politicians, the media, a whole lot of virtuous signalling and very little discussion, context in relation to IC vehicle sales growth. The real growth in sales of IC engine vehicles around the world makes EV sales look puny the last 5 yrs. Hypesters use percentage growth because of the very small base of EV sales, numbers show the real facts, sales have not met expectations or forecasts , woefully inadequate to really have an impact on oil demand.
Last year another record year of sales of IC engine vehicles at around 78m while EV's sold a total about 1m EV's (mostly hybrids). Despite all the subsidies and hype, very disappointing compared to forecasts. Obama promised 1m EV sales a year by 2015 in the U.S. , in 2016 that number was actually 115k, more wishful thinking by a politician. So far as the total world auto inventory, IC engines at 1.2b today and expected to climb to 2b before peaking.
I wouldn't get too concerned that oil demand is going to roll over anytime soon, mostly a bear market narrative, just in 2016 many in the MSM were sure peak demand was here, wrong again. There is nothing yet to replace oil in our world whether it be in planes, trains , autos, petrochemicals etc... Demand grows year in and year out with the exception of recessions.
China's vehicle ownership rates are still a fraction of those in the US—58 vehicles per 1,000 persons in 2010 compared to 804 per 1,000 in the US. Clearly, the market for vehicles in China will grow. Most forecasts anticipate Chinese growth leveling off at an ownership rate of about 200–300 vehicles per 1,000 persons in 2030 or later.
The global market for commercial internal combustion engines reached $166.9 billion in 2016 and should reach $208.3 billion by 2020, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.7% from 2016 to 2020.
reportlinker.com |
