Robert- I started with puts at 105
I am sorry I didn't sell in october at 89!
I am mostly going by the charts with the overall market/world conditions thrown in
Look at a weekly bar chart, draw a upper trend line across the tops from august till now (excluding suckers rally in november to 113.5 & the latest one to 107+)also draw a line across the major bottoms for the same time period.
You will see a wedge pattern closing very soon
(top right now is 105, bottom @ 97)
also the major upper trend line has been on a downward slope for the last 5 months.
We have tried to break thru the top trend line twice and failed, to me showing growing weekness
Also look at a monthly bar chart, the one I have goes back to 1990. We are extremly extended from the long term moving average which now sits at about $67
Look at the yearly ranges and you will see a 40 to 50 point range for the last two years, from 107 this gives is a lot of room on both the down and up side. I am looking to set the lower limit early in the year maybe breaking the highs later in the year.
Given Technical weekness from the breakouts, Extreme extension from long term trends, Extremly concerning world conditions, Greenspans desire to bring the markets down, a dangerious wedge pattern about to close, and IBM's historical 1st qtr declines for the last two years, probability forces me to the down side!!!!
An old friend of mine once said "Don't believe what you hear, don't believe what you read, look at the charts and figure out what the BIG BOYs are doing"
Reading the charts and piecing together all the information is like watching an indian tracker follow an animal thru the woods. I haven't got that good yet, but it sure is fun trying.
Well on with the hunt!
Good luck
Dan |
