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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing
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To: Richard Barron who wrote (2986)1/11/1998 10:02:00 AM
From: Brooks Jackson  Read Replies (1) of 78702
 
QGLY a value stock? Not on your life. Ben Graham would stand you in the corner for even suggesting it.

My reasoning:

--It's a one-product company
--The product has competition this year -- EVERYBODY is bringing out zinc lozenges. (QGLY's patent is only on the formulation, not the active ingredient. The formulation is supposed to make it taste better. Try one for yourself -- it still tastes like crap.)
--Management is questionable in my opinion. Check out how much of the revenue gets siphoned off in royalties to managment before the stockholders get any.
--The sales figures are to retail -- who knows if customers are actually buying this stuff.
--Mild winter = fewer colds = lower sales for ALL cold remedies.
--And of course the thing Ben Graham would point to first -- the lack of any consistent track record on earnings.

One more negative -- the hysterical tone of the hypesters on the QGLY thread. A bunch of tub-beaters who sound as though QGLY is paying them by the word.

I passed on this one about six months ago, then watched it double. And I never regretted the decision. There is no question in my mind that it could double again. But it could just as easily -- MORE easily IMO -- go to zero. It's as speculative a stock as you can find. No "value" whatsoever IMO.

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