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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: William H Huebl who wrote (13040)1/11/1998 2:14:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins  Read Replies (2) of 94695
 
Hi Bill; I for sure know there is an easier way to do what I'm
doing..has to be. But in doing it I discover things that still
confuse me, looking at them I may stumble onto something others have
not looked at. Guess I'm hunting for more than just the tail and
the dog, but don't know what it is, just hoping I'll recognize it
when I find it.
What is this A/D that you compare to the DJ-30 ? the A/D part
lost me.
-------------------
Something I found I don't know what to make of yet is that the
total market cap..does not add up to what the total average market
cap would be at the average price per share.. ( like the average
price per share = $66.33 at close friday,
( that times the total shares out gives a market total cap larger by
28B than the real total market cap.) ( IT's like a GAP )
Not a big thing when you see the that the real cap is 1.867T,
yet it indicates that some stocks ( per dollar have captured more
percentage wise of the real market cap, while others may have much l
but that the average value per share on a whole exceeds the real val
exactly what this means I haven't figured out.
IT's like looking at a very badly tangled up fishing net and trying
figure out how to get all the twists and loops out of it, short
of cutting it up. <grin>
---------------------------
To get a handle on this I think I will need to back test it before
this latest drop and see if that gap was more or less than
it is now, and where it was. Is this making any sense at all ?
Like some stocks are gaped above the mean average, while others
below it, but producing a net effect of small "gap up" still in
place. MY gut feeling is saying to me that the gap is the result of
expectations that still exceed reality, indicating a little
over bought situation is still in place, And that when that gap
gets going the other way, it will say over sold is the condition,
BUT I don't trust this GUT feeling.
--------------------
And coming up with a formula in 123 to show me where and how
this average market cap value exceeds the real is still eluding me.
Till I do that I won't put any real faith in it.
Damm I've gotten into a tangled up web of things, and maybe over
complicated it beyond what would be useful.
----------
Any way what is this A/D you mentioned ?
I'm tempted to discard most of this mixed up crap I see inside
the DOW, it's just to much work for so many questionable results.
YET I hate finding a discrepancy and not know how it gets
there.
Jim
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