The following is an update of a table presented quite a few weeks ago.
This one looks at the average performance of the 37 stocks in the
previous tables. It starts at the last of April 97 and is updated
through last Friday's close.
I picked the last of April 97 as a rather arbitrary point where the
semi-equips as a group began their run of ever increasing highs until
August 97, a period of approximately 4 months.
ZACKS
WEEKLY CUM OUTYEAR
CLOSING SUM PERCENT PERCENT PE
PRICE CLOSING GAIN/ GAIN/ ESTIMATE
DATE PRICES LOSS LOSS AVERAGE
04/25/97 636
06/06/97 837 32 32 16.8
06/13/97 804 -4 26 16.1
06/20/97 835 4 31 16.6
06/27/97 850 2 34 16.2
07/04/97 895 5 41 17.2
07/11/97 961 7 51 18.5
07/18/97 1009 5 59 19.5
07/25/97 1046 4 64 20.4
08/01/97 1061 1 67 20.5
08/08/97 1086 2 71 20.7
08/15/97 1096 1 72 20.8
08/22/97 1204 10 89 22.8
08/29/97 1210 0 90 21.2
09/05/97 1239 2 95 21.8
09/12/97 1235 0 94 23.5
09/19/97 1241 0 95 21.3
09/26/97 1224 -1 92 20.8
10/03/97 1230 0 93 21.2
10/10/97 1226 0 93 20.3
10/17/97 1051 -14 65 17.1
10/24/97 916 -13 44 15.6
10/31/97 867 -5 36 14.8
11/07/97 892 3 40 15.2
11/14/97 842 -6 32 14.4
11/21/97 858 2 35 14.1
11/28/97 804 -6 26 13.3
12/05/97 790 -2 24 13.0
12/12/97 629 -20 -1 10.4
12/19/97 677 8 6 10.9
12/26/97 663 -2 4 10.7
01/02/98 703 6 11 12.2
01/09/98 632 -10 -1 11.1
From the close on 8/22 until the close on 10/10, there was a broad
top until the sector started the steep downward slide. From the close
on 12/12 there was an upward trend until this past week when the
sector had the 10 percent loss. The "cum" percent column shows the
group average gain/loss with respect to the group average on 4/25.
By looking at the last entry in the column, it shows the group
average to be essentially the same as that on 4/25, just prior to
the runup. This is the same figure as shown on 12/12, (-1 percent).
If a person had decided on 12/12 that effectively this was 4/25, and
invested in the sector waiting for the runup, their hopes would have
been dashed this past week. This person wouldn't have lost money, but
no gain either. The question is - is the sector average going to
decline more before the start of the inevitable recovery. How long
before the recovery sets in? It could be nearly immediate, or it
could be several months.
The last column in the table is the sector average PE. Unfortunately,
I did not have data for the first entry in the column. I believe a
resonable estimate would be to use the percent increase shown for
the weekly gain/loss from 4/25 to 6/6, 32 percent. Then dividing
16.8 by 1.32 yields and average PE of 12.7. The last entry in the
column is 11.1. On 9/12, at the height of enthusiam for semi-equip
stocks, the PE was 23.5.
If one could invest in averages, now would probably be a good time
to "load up". Several stocks should be invested in to prevent a
"wipeout" on a stock like LRCX this last week, losing 25 percent in
one week. Who can tell who the winners and losers will be within
the broad sector as the crisis gets sorted out? As shown in one of
the previous tables, there will be "winners and losers" within the
sector, but to some extent, all stocks in the sector go up and down
to some extent over a period that is measured in months or years.
Now that I've rambled on and presented this data - what does it
mean about the future? Darned if I know!!!<bg>
Don W. |
