Bill; an after thought;
It dawned on me that by A/D you may mean the moving
average, compared to the DOW. But if so that's not the tail
I'm trying to see. It's got to much blended into it.
But if I just used the moving average of the top 10 caps,
compared to the moving average of the DOW That would
show me better the tail I'm looking for, or better yet
maybe the moving average of the top ten against the M/A
of the bottom 20. ( cap wise ) the bottom 20 being the
tail. ? With sectors it would be the same, the big caps
set the trend, it don't become noticeable with TA until
it's well underway. Regular TA on an index just don't
add up to me, it has the tail built into it and also the
M/A. I want to separate out that, and believe if I can,
that I get in front of the curve that regular TA will eventually
show, but often to late.
( this on the observation over and over that the
MEGA caps are in charge of trend, ) Pulling the
MEGA caps out of the soup back in July, August, Sept.
clearly shows that something was wrong inside the index,
that Price, M/A or any TA of the group didn't show at all.
AS the Price and M/A was propped up by gains in thinly
traded issues who were still into the bull run, while
at the time the Mega Caps were trending down in a
sneaky way. The MEGAs can lose a small amount for days and
weeks on end and on heavy volume, while the others make good
gains in light volume, thus making the entire index and M/A
look way above were it should be. Same the other way around.
So meanwhile towards the end of an uptrend, TA is showing
gains in the index and even if your useing volume thats also
painting a much more rosy picture than is real.
Jim |
