good news, economy growing, export growing
better news, domestic orientation in progress
best news, debt under zig / zag control
ultra best news, zig / zag control in good working condition, to assure more of the same
outstanding new, that all is reported so by suspect media
ft.com
China’s economy grows 6.9% in 2017 on strong exports and property
GDP accelerates despite efforts to curb financial risk from excessive debt
The glass is half full
53 minutes ago
China's net exports contributed 0.6 percentage points to overall growth, the highest contribution since 2008 © AFPChina’s economy grew at 6.9 per cent in 2017, the fastest pace in two years, despite policymakers making headway towards curbing financial risk from excessive debt.
The country’s 6.8 per cent growth for the fourth quarter locked in China’s first yearly gross domestic product acceleration since 2010. The annual figure overshot the government’s original full-year target of “around 6.5 per cent” and outpaced growth of 6.7 per cent in 2016.
In purchasing-power parity terms, growth in 2017 alone equalled the size of Canada’s entire economy, according to ANZ Bank. Net exports contributed 0.6 percentage points to overall growth, the highest contribution since 2008, as a buoyant global economy boosted trade.
Entering 2017, most analysts had expected policymakers to ensure solid growth in the run-up to October’s five-yearly Communist party congress, at which President Xi Jinping strengthened his hold on power.
Policymakers achieved this goal while also engineering a significant slowdown in credit growth, after years in which economists have warned about risks building from aggressive credit stimulus. China’s ratio of debt to GDP fell the first time since 2011 in the first half by some estimates.
“[Mr Xi] understands that China can no longer play its high growth card. Issues like debt pile-up and air pollution could cause social unrest if not a financial meltdown,” wrote Raymond Yeung, chief greater China economist at ANZ in Hong Kong.
Nominal GDP growth — an indicator that many analysts consider more reliable than the politically sensitive inflation-adjusted figure — was 11.2 per cent, up from 8 per cent in 2016, as a rebound in commodity prices boosted inflation. China has moved to shutter excess production capacity in sectors including coal, steel and aluminium last year, which helped boost prices.
But analysts warn that the trade-off between growth and deleveraging will get tougher this year, with a slowing property market and tighter controls on local-government infrastructure spending expected to drag on the economy. They also note that the lagging impact of strong credit growth in 2016 boosted growth last year, while 2017’s tightening will have the opposite effect this year.
If growth shows signs of slowing sharply, policymakers will face pressure to soften their de-leveraging campaign, as they have done repeatedly in the past.
“While domestic demand should cool [in 2018] on tighter financial policy, China’s policymakers want the slowdown in credit and the economy to be gradual,” wrote Louis Kuijs, head of Asia economics for Oxford Economics in Hong Kong. Mr Kuijs forecasts growth of 6.4 per cent this year.
A big theme of Mr Xi’s agenda-setting speech to the party congress was the onset of a “new era” in which China will prioritise growth quality over quantity. That includes greater attention to environmental protection and industrial upgrading. A top economic adviser has said that China will abandon the use of long-term GDP targets that critics say have locked policymakers into aggressive stimulus policies.
Ning Jizhe, director of China’s statistics bureau, told reporters on Thursday that recently disclosed incidents of data falsification by regional officials did not affect national figures.
But he also acknowledged the need for further improvements in data quality. The agency will introduce a revamped statistical system next year that aims to eliminate the gap between national GDP data and the sum of regional figures.
“A few local numbers don’t influence the reliability of our national statistics,” said Mr Ning.
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