Alan, Sounds like from your posting that we should consider moving a few dollars in to Asian Mutual Funds in a couple of months when things bottom and Asian currencies begin to improve against the dollar.....
I spend a lot of time in the semiconductor threads- you might want to see this article on semiconductor/equipment demand. The CEO's of the major equipment companies paint a picture different from what the press would depict about the impact of Asia's issues on semiconductor equipmnet demand....
sumnet.com
Personally I do not see major economic problems dragging the world down myself. The key IMO is how Japan moves to recapitalize its bad banks. The best answer is to allow Japanese pension funds to recapitalize the bad banks, repackage them, sell them and get them into hands of current solvent and competent Japanese bankers...
As to the floundering economies of Asia, Thailand, Indonesia, Korea, and Malaysia, the leaders in their central planning approach to national economics spent too much money on capital projects that did not fit world demand for products.
Korea under Kim Dae Jung is moving rapidly to correct that issue and let the markets be the ultimate arbiter for capital allocation-hopefully Thailand , Malaysia. and Indonesia will do the same....
But it means following a western style free market economic approach- that requires giving your citizens freedom of economic, political, and religious choice-i.e., maximum personal freedom to make choices. Singapore and Taiwan are doing just that right now. The others will have to face this tough choice between free markets and traditional culture and custom in deciding whether to join "with both feet" the freewheeling global capitalist village....
In any case what happened in SE Asia is no different than what happened in Mexico in 1992-93. SE Asia will recover economically in the next 18 months IMO..... (indeed look at which Mexican stocks did well in the recovery- it gives a hint of which Asian-based companies to purchase...).
Sincerely,
Doug F. |
