IBM Message Board - Msg: 3144398

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Technology Stocks : IBM

IBM 305.09

+0.2%

Dec 26 9:30 AM EST

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To: DAN KACKLEY who wrote (2097)	1/11/1998 8:01:00 PM
From: Bill Martin	Read Replies (1) of 8219

Re: You will see a wedge pattern closing very soon Everyone has a slightly different way of doing this Dan, but when I draw the short term trend lines you talk about I get parallel horizontal channels. As you say, I leave out the outlier points at the high of November, but I also clip off a couple outlier lows in late October. As Elder says, leave out the few fringe players and try to look at what the mass of people trading in the market are doing. If you accept the two horizontal lines defineing a channel (which you certainly don't have to accept), then it leads to an intersection with the long term uptrend line that you mentioned sometime at the end of the first quarter maybe. I take this to be a generally positive chart -- not outrageously so. ...and IBM's historical 1st qtr declines for the last two years, ... Actually 1997 is the only year I see it's been down substantially in Q1. In 1996 it rose from 43 to 56 during 1Q96 (+30%), and then dropped substantially in Q2. In 1995 it rose in Q1. In 1994 it kind of bounced up and down with a slight loss in Q1. All in all, I tend to see Q1 as a generally positive quarter for IBM. Another view, FWIW .... Bill

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