(1) yeup, in a manner of speaking, but as per earlier round of global outsourcing, entirely of own volition, and enthusiastically executed, all for selfish reasons but with altruistic outcome
it may be a natural consequence of capitalism taken inexorably to the inevitable point of destination
(2) many years ago i suspected several simultaneous impetuses , and did so without assigning blames and projecting values
(2-i) global equalisation of cost 2001 Message 16731206 <<The ultimate consequence of globalization is equalization of cost, and, by equation, the equalization of active income. I do not wish to be equalized away, in this way or any other way.>>
i wonder how the elmat is doing in the grand struggle we are all engaged with. did he heed the warnings, alerts, hints, and nudges? perhaps not. he is very sure of himself. let us wait and see.
(2-ii) planetary equalisation of revenue 2002 Message 17325813 <<In any case, J6P must complete his life mission of giving painful birth to global equalization of cost and revenue, and therefore income, by borrowing, working, spending and working some more and finally spending somewhat less, for the good of W3CS2BH4P. Concurrently, J6P must not forget to keep busy fighting a war that will not end while preparing for a war that will never be, while W3CH4P marches towards economic integration and S2B meanders towards economic disintermediation.>>
(2-iii) inflation of the east 2010 Message 26630362 <<while i am in alignment with the s&p500 at 500 concern re deflation of oecd west
but i am also having a difficult time reconciling a s&p500 at 500 world with inflation of the east>>
(2-iv) deflation of the west 2010 Message 26707029 <<This basket of goodies should do OK in the arena where the west is deflating and the east is inflating, and at some sorry juncture we will keep appointment with global zero-state monetary reset of the nastiest sort.>>
(2-v) east / west in-de-flation 2011 Message 27087854 <<inflation of the east
deflation of the west
on average we should be fine
just as we should be, in aggregate and on average
if we put one foot in sub-zero ice pack
and the other foot in boiling scalding water>>
(2-vi) china starts w/ cheap labour, progresses to cheap labour and inexpensive capital, and evolves to cheap labour, inexpensive capital, and value-packed intellectual capital
(2-vii) 2006 Message 22936791 <<one bit of detail regarding r&d spend in china and usa, from own observation of startups in both locales working on similar ideas, that each r&d dollar, equivalent to 7.9 rmb, buys more neurons in china
meaning, for a startup in the usa that raised some dollars, it ought to spend such dollar in china, else lose out to the german startup that raises moolah and europe and spends same in india
on ppp basis, i think china may be outspending all already
i am concerned that, as china developed off the backs of cheap labour 1982-1995, enhanced by cheap capital 1995-2006, will likely be well supported by economical intellectual capital going forward
i am not certain what my toddler should be studying within the coming 20 years to prepare her for what can gather to be quite a storm>>
(2-viii) 2007 Message 24162918 <<the next quarter century of prc development will see inexpensive but highly skilled labour, cheap and plentiful capital, enhanced by inexpensive, geewhizwhoa, and plentiful formulation and commercialization of intellectual property - all the while see the enlargement of the genuine midddle class with truly growing and genuine disposable income unencumbered by wars of conquest and patch patch of empire
teotwawki winks
twoapuc beckons
ntoeawsbe says 'come hither'>>
(3) i keep faith re my suspicions, but elmat tells us different
(3-i) no matter
(3-ii) because there is no point to waste time debating ad infinitum ad nauseaum, for if my suspicions are correct, HKEX (0388.hk) and Tencent (0700.hk) should continue generally up barring market-wide hiccup (which i fear is likely), and if my suspicions are wrong, i cannot afford to.
(3-iii) always tended to put my overarching macro views in context of actionable daily-bread making, else just so much meaningless chitter chatter from some nameless fishing village be in gentrified hong kong or deep dark africa
(3-vi) and besides, it is fun scoring free lunch off of 'the other side' of the trade in the mean time as 'the other side' gets to watch, over, again, once more, twice then thrice, ad infinitum, ad nauseaum, and after back flip, starts again
(4) back to more serious matters, that i do not see the inexorable process towards the inevitable getting derailed, because of guidance by historical evidence and script defined by mathematical logic
(5) however, i am cognisant that i can be wrong on any number of issues and whatever, and so encourage all to save in gold, that which is certain and forever
(5-i) elmat poopoos gold, and that should tell all how certain he is of his take, to which i alert, that high conviction is a certain sentence |
