Exponential technology watch list: Innovation opportunities on the horizon
Science author Steven Johnson once observed that “innovation doesn’t come just from giving people incentives; it comes from creating environments where their ideas can connect.
In a business and technology climate where the ability to innovate has become critical to survival, many companies still struggle to create the disciplined, innovation-nurturing environments that Johnson describes. The process of innovating is, by definition, a hopeful journey into new landscapes. Without a clear destination, some executives can become unsure and frustrated. Where should we focus our innovation efforts? How can we develop breakthrough innovations that will set our business up for success in the future while delivering for the quarter? How can we turn our haphazard, episodic innovation efforts into methodical, productive processes?
With exponential technologies, the challenge becomes more daunting. Unlike many of the emerging tools and systems examined in this report—which demonstrate clear potential for impacting businesses in the next 18 to 24 months—exponentials can appear a bit smaller on the horizon. These are emerging technology forces that we think could manifest in a “horizon 3 to 5” timeframe—between 36 and 60 months. With some exponentials, the time horizon may extend far beyond five years before manifesting broadly in business and government. For example, artificial general intelligence (AGI) and quantum encryption, which we examine later in this chapter, fall into the 5+ category. Others could manifest more quickly; even AGI and quantum encryption are showing breadcrumbs of progress that may lead to breakthroughs in the nearer time horizon. As you begin exploring exponential forces, keep in mind that even though they may appear small on the horizon, you should not assume you have three to five years to put a plan together and get started. Now is the time to begin constructing an exponentials innovation environment in which, as Johnson says, “ideas can connect.”
At present, many enterprises lack the structures, capabilities, and processes required to innovate effectively in the face of exponential change—a reality that carries some risk. Though exponential initiatives may require leaps of faith and longer-term commitments, they can potentially deliver transformative outcomes. For example, in our Tech Trends 2014 report, we collaborated with faculty at Singularity University, a leading research institution, to explore robotics and additive manufacturing. At that time, these emerging technologies were outpacing Moore’s Law: Their performance relative to cost (and size) was more than doubling every 12 to 18 months. Just a few years later, we see these same technologies are disrupting industries, business models, and strategies.
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