***THE SKY IS FALLING! THE WORLD IS COMING TO AN END!...BUY!!***. Suharto/Summers/IMF have failed to make any positive announcement. If no positive announcement comes before market opens tomorrow, expect a limit gap down open. Summers just arrived in Indonesia today, & IMF chief not due until later this week. Any serious negotiation should take more than a few hours; therefore, a deal is unlikely before market opens. Tonight, the markets are crashing around the world. Except Taiwan, every market in East Asia has already crashed recently--Korea, Japan, China, Hong Kong, Philipines, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia. I think this is the end of Round One of global cascading equity/currency collapse. I think all these countries except Indonesia has reached temporary bottoms. Round two can happen if China devalues RMB again. Chinese devaluation is a serious risk, but that want happen for a least a few months. If U.S. market does open limit gap down, I think that will make a short term bottom in this market.
This has been quite a bear market since my last post on the Hong Kong night-Oct 22. I was 180% short in my main account, and 99% cash in all other accounts. To the pros, 180%-short may be but routine trading position. To me, shorting is extremely un-natural. Being 180%-short represents extreme bearishness. I started covering my 180% shorts last Friday when the Dow hit down 270 points. I'm less than 100% short now. If the market open limit gap down, I will cover all my short, and I may even go 100% long depending on high brave I feel. The bull market is over. But that does not mean stocks will go down every day. I think this will be a nice short term bottom. |
