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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 291.39+2.8%4:00 PM EST
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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (78761)1/27/2018 1:46:35 PM
From: Kirk ©3 Recommendations

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robert b furman

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They cycle hasn't gone away...
Very few have the knowledge that the market is really expanding for new applications and new systems that require memory, and if the economy continues to remain strong, this new market will take everything the fab companies can throw at it and they will continue to prosper.

In other words, very little in the way of a "cycle".
Note how you wrote "if the economy continues to remain strong."

Eventually there will be an economic downturn with slow growth or a recession. When people start losing jobs they don't upgrade their smart phones or buy new cars with all the latest new technology... ECRI seems to think a growth rate slowdown could be starting which may be why some of our stocks like FNSR and MU are not doing as well as we'd like.

I also well remember that we get the most complaints about "the market" not understanding that it is "different this time" just before we learn it isn't.

So, I took a bunch of profits yesterday and last week, just in case. If we continue higher, great as I still have plenty in the market but it is not the time to be leveraged for sure, at least on a risk reward basis.

Risk reward: Just look at LRCX, my favorite in the sector. It could double again but it could also drop 40 to 80% or so to support as it has many, many times before.
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