You make good points, the market is not going to go up in a straight line forever. There will be pullbacks and "cycles" ahead, when is a good question, but always unknowable when the "peak" will occur.
Risk reward: Just look at LRCX, my favorite in the sector. It could double again but it could also drop 40 to 80% or so to support as it has many, many times before.
No question LRCX has been a great stock over many years. However, even with the good earnings report issued Wednesday evening, the stock was down -5.0% on Thursday and finished down -2.4% for the week. What was the "market" looking for that caused this? We don't know and there may be more than 1 factor that caused this type of action.
I added a column to the tabular earnings table this week which shows the difference between Current Year and Next Year earnings estimates. Only 4 stocks in the SOXM show a decrease in the Next Year estimate to the Current Year estimate. They are MU, CRUS, LRCX, and IDCC. This is not a "really big deal", but notable nevertheless. In periods of the past months only MU fit this category, but now there are 4 stocks.
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