Elroy, Sam just wrote a post explaining why the business environment is different today than it was in the past. He makes a good analysis of why this so.
You come back with the same argument you made previously. Where are we going with this? You are presenting a very simplistic economic argument. If MU and other memory makers were making "nuts and bolts" it would be easy to buy more nut and bolt maker equipment, put on more workers and flood the market.
This is not what is going on in the semi industry. "Memory" is needed in a myriad of applications. Memory and associated systems are complex. The semi industry, including memory applications is "moving on" to bigger and better devices and systems. Let's get visionary here, semiconductor growth is at an exponential rate. Let's leave the old "nuts and bolts" concept behind and get with the program.
Having said that, neither you, I, Sam or others know what is really going to come to pass. All we can do is to use all the tools available to us to evaluate the business climate and respond accordingly. Predictions for the short term can be somewhat on target, but much more difficult long term.
Everyone reading this thread knows your assessment. Fine, let's move on. If you have information, or want to discuss factors that are affecting the semi business environment, up or down, let's hear it. |
