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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 270.83+1.0%Nov 21 4:00 PM EST
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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (78795)1/29/2018 7:41:45 PM
From: Kirk ©2 Recommendations

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bull_dozer
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Ah.... more of the infamous "this time it is different." Please write this date down along with the current market levels with a link to your posts.
Elroy, Sam just wrote a post explaining why the business environment is different today than it was in the past. He makes a good analysis of why this so.
Other than Booze, smokes and perhaps now weed in its various forms, I know of NO product ever made that goes against the business cycle.

I remember in the 1980s when we started to replace mechanical switches in cars with transistors and MOSFETs.... my grandfather's fancy smancy car had a tube radio with mechanical push buttons to store different channels!
Having said that, neither you, I, Sam or others know what is really going to come to pass.
Not to be immodest....

but I do... eventually there will be more capacity than demand and many of our favorite companies will suffer major downturns.

Our semiconductor capital equipment makers usually see it first when companies stop adding capacity for current products and only spend for advance technologies to not be left in the dirt when the business cycle turns up again.

Then the buyers of our equipment start to fill their backorders, often learning that some have double or triple booked and this great demand they told about on conference calls turns out to vanish.

Then some of us start to write we wish we took MORE profits so we could buy more at the next bottom and not suffer so much during the decline.... while others just go away as they were over invested at the top and wiped out if using leverage.

This won't change. Some companies like Lam have done very well with outsourcing and selling services so they can often remain profitable but I remember the days the buy signal was when they took massive write offs for huge negative quarterly earnings.
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