Timing the Trade the Wyckoff Way Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Timing the Trade the Wyckoff Way

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To: PT1950 who wrote (14163)	1/30/2018 10:27:21 PM
From: MilitaryVet	of 14340

I was also curious how BTT did during the 2007-2008 recession so I went back and literally read through 1000s of msgs around that time frame. I noticed Mr. C and others were out of the market before the major sells offs and those who were nimble (and brave) were able to take advantage of some short term rally calls. No doubt there were probably some losses but from what I could tell it didn't appear anyone was holding through the entire market down turn. I summarized some of the notes from reading through many of the messages below: 1. You must have an edge to be consistently profitable and the best edge is gained by buying the best stocks. I think this is very important because this helps build confidence in the stock which enables holding onto it when shakeouts occur. Best stocks is an objective term but I think it's important to find stocks that have a good story (meaning product in demand and outpacing the competition and multiple income steams is also important). 2. Knowing when to exit seems to be a challenge for many. Mr. C suggested using either the BTT (trailing stop) or Wyckoff (price targets) method and also mentions IBD method (take profit at 20% but hold longer if stock runs up quickly). I use a hybrid and scale out especially if a stock is a fast mover. It also depends on which stage the stock is in. If it's breaking out of a long base, then I'll let it run for three days, take some profits and look for a re-entry on a pullback to support. If stock just broke out of initial base then I'll keep a core amount of shares even if I sell some during a short term price run. I don't think a static rule like "set stop loss at 5%" is realistic. A more viable strategy IMO is to base stop losses on the ATR of the stock, thus if a stock has a daily ATR of 5%, then a 5% stop loss wouldn't work and something like 8% or 10% would be appropriate. 5% swings may be too volatile for some people. 3. Mr. C suggests concentrating your portfolio to the best stocks (leaders). This is where the work must come in and enables one to gain an even better edge. One must really get to know there stocks. I think a person can do fairly well following BTT stock selections and paying attention to market cycles but to really excel requires a bit of study each week to become more intimate with certain stocks. 4. Back in 2007, crc07, made it a point to post all trades real time, which forced him to make better trades. I think this has value even if you don't publicly post your trades but at least force yourself to record your entry points, targets, and stop losses as an exercise in trading according to a plan.

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