Peter, as you well know, one never knows with Yahoo!
However, I've been thinking for days at least that the only difference between now and last October is that, this time, any attempt at a bounce in the general market won't hold. It'll be a "bull trap" if it bounces at all soon.
How many times can we expect small fund buyers to poor cash in on every "dip"? They haven't made money if they bought on that Tuesday bounce last October (yes, some funds are up, but Friday's Dow is less than 100 points from the Oct 28 close and fund buyers get closing prices). Plus, these small investors chase returns and the returns have been in bond funds lately. Retail brokers must be finding them an easier sell right now than stock funds.
I was getting worried that there were too many bears around, but I've been spending too much time reading threads like this one and then discovered Roger's bear den. Oh, and Bearon's too. Read/watch mainstream commentary. For some reason, the masses seem to think The Motley Fool knows all and they remain raging bulls. Brokerage house strategists keep talking about how the fourth quarter was still very strong and that is bullish. Who cares, at this point, what the fourth quarter LOOKED like? That's ancient history to the market. What's the fourth quarter of 1998 going to look like? Probably not pretty.
As for Yahoo, just be glab you have twice as many puts as shares. Last fall, Yahoo! dropped about 13 1/2 points in a day and a morning before it bounced. Could be worse, could be better this time (which is which?). No predictions, just possibilities.
Bob |
