Sonny, I talked to my broker @ Merrill Lynch this AM. Tom Kurlak
is looking for 86 cents from Intel Q4, 3.50-3.75 for 98.
Downsise they feel will be at the 65-68 aerea where there is a LOT of support.
However he said that following this weekend's announcement Re TCI/Intel deal to use Java and Intel chipps he said that it is likely Tom will revise upwards it's earnings much sooner, possibly this month. At this point Merrill expects a new high on the Dow by late this month or next month. We may or may not touch the Oct 97 lows again to test them. Overall however the basic scenario is the same:baby boomers are not going to go for 3.75% yearly growth in their funds, ( 5.75% Bond - 2% inflation ).
Over the weekend in PBS Abby Joseph Cohen said that the US economy is like a supertanker now, VERY difficult to steer off course:may be a small shift here of there.
My own opinin is that Asia is starting to fall into place. (Japan & Korea, that is which is what counts; even Indonesia will be strong armed into the system ,sooner or later ).
I don't think we are going to see massive imports because Asia WILL NOT be able to borrow giant amounts of money again to build fabs to compete with us as strongly as they did 10 years ago.With our new found leaness and meaness I think US Cos will weather the crisis well.
Asia situation is just what the doctor ordered to cool the temperature of this hot bull market, ( it's better than raising interest rates ), makes us more competitive.
The Asian criis will consist in the next few weeks of episodes of a)Institutions folding , [like Peregrine Holdings in Hong Kong this weekend (which is why they are down 8% last night)], and a)riots in Indonesia and strikes in SKorea. In S.Korea because of the Unions who are against the just proposed Bill to allow Companies to fire workers
if they can't pay them the very high wage that unions have been asking. Dow Jones this AM doubts though that in this national crisis
people are going to support the strike and so the bill will likely pass ,especially because it is supported by the new president elect who was a Union guy in the good ol' days.
Back to Intel: Market down, Intel up: Good sign? gg.
TA |
