In the absence of the any comment on this "great" 4Q (4Q was actually very good, IMO), I will continue to talk to myself.
So, what was pathetic in this 4Q CC?
From transcript: CFO, <Regeneron's share of losses in connection with the commercialization of antibodies for the full year 2017 was $443 million as compared to losses of $459 million for the full year 2016.>
So, cumulative commercialization lost (total expense are lost + any sales) (REGN + SNY) for 16 & 17 (for P, D, and K) was $1,804M. Add to that development expense (for both product, P & D, ongoing) of at least $2,000M/candidate (maybe $1000M for Kevzara). Total investment, so far, is ~$6,8000M. Going forward, IF one expect that Praluent may be discontinued (due to unfavorable CVOT data, real possibility) and Kevzara pooled out of market (continuous loss, why not?), it is up to Dupixen to capture investment, actually double that investment as one will hope for reasonable profit/return.
We are talking about need to generate+$13,000M profit. I would put Dupixent profit at 25% of sale, indicating that cumulative sale for Dupixen should be at least $52B. That is 5.2 B for 10 years. Well, so far we have 250M. Way to go, isn't it?
|
