"Average daily subscriber gains increased approximately 19 percent despite the fact that there were approximately 16 percent fewer useful business days during the fourth quarter."
Disappointed? You bet I am. I expected 400k. But on the positive side, if NXTL would have had the same number of business days in the 4th qtr. as in the 3rd qtr., adds would have been 385,000. I never would have guessed that NXTL would lose ten, count 'em, TEN, working days in the 4th qtr. But they did. Meanwhile the acceleration continues. It's too early to say that NXTL's adds have stabilized because the 4th quarter appears like it will always be the low qtr. for the year. NXTL's history has been for it to exceed Akerson's public expectations and the fact that results were within Akerson's range breaks that record, especially considering that the numbers are at the low end of expectations. None of this will matter a year from now but today it matters.
As I've said many times in recent months, NXTL likes to bottom around the end of January, first part of February. This year will be no different. I had hoped that better than expected adds would break that pattern but it wasn't in the cards.
I still see breakeven operating cash flow in the second quarter. It's a slam dunk. My prediction for the 1st qtr. 1998? 412,000, a 7% average daily increase over the growth rate in the 4th quarter.
Arnie |
