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Biotech / Medical : Regeneron Pharmaceuticals

REGN 706.91

-2.5%

1:26 PM EST

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From: Biotech Jim	2/13/2018 11:25:00 AM
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This is what Credit Suisse had to say about the Roche trial last week before news release: We think Roche’s RG7716, the ANG2/VEGF bispecific, will show superiority on BCVA vs. Lucentis alone. However, the dosing of Lucentis is effectively much higher in the bispecific arm vs. the Lucentis control which could pose longer term safety questions. For the Phase 2 VEGF/ANG2 from ROG, we are expecting to see greater efficacy from the bispecific arm vs. the Lucentis 0.3mg arm. We are not sure if this greater efficacy can necessarily be attributed to ANG2 since the bispecific arm has a much higher functional dose of VEGF. A 6mg dose of RG7716 per the Phase 1 paper is equivalent to a 2mg dose of Lucentis, but the trial is studying 1.5mg and 6mg arms of RG7716 vs. 0.3mg of Lucentis. With an improvement over Lucentis from this bispecific, this agent could possibly be another competitor in the space long term. A question we have with the bispecific as well will be around the path forward for this asset since higher doses of Lucentis historically have exhibited safety concerns such as hypertension. They also had this summary: We like risk/reward from here on REGN after a significant pullback based on Eylea competition and general market weakness. As we noted earlier this week, we think much is priced in for Eylea risk and Dupixent trends look solid which we believe is the dominant 2018 thesis. We noted earlier that we think significant competition is baked into REGN shares after publishing our Angiogenesis preview. If Eylea is a $1B drug by 2023 (vs. $2.3B base case), our valuation is lower by $60/share (15%) as compare to the stock which has fallen ~25% since concerns have emerged around brolucizumab last fall and RG7716 this year.

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