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Technology Stocks : Investing in Exponential Growth

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From: Paul H. Christiansen2/14/2018 3:00:17 PM
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What’s at Stake in the Voice Assistant Race



It is interesting that Apple’s HomePod has ignited a broader philosophical debate, within the tech industry and industry pundits and observers, around what is really at stake with voice assistants in the future. Everyone has an opinion on this, and there is a degree of implications for the future to be thought about as well.

It is worth making a high-level point right off the bat. In many discussions I’ve had behind closed doors on this subject, it seems folks like to explore whether voice assistants are disruptive. I dislike this word because it is misused more often than it is correctly used or understood. But the question I hear specifically is whether these voice assistants are disruptive to Apple mainly. The answer is no, and I’ll briefly explain why.

At its core, disruption of an incumbent impacts its core business model by way of losing its customers. For Apple to be disrupted by something, that something has to lead to Apple losing customers who are not buying their hardware. There is no guarantee Apple is not going to be disrupted in some way like this someday, but I’m confident it is nowhere near the immediate or relatively distant future. What I don’t think is at stake with these voice assistants is Apple’s disruption, but I do think what’s at stake is Apple’s sharing of their highly valuable customer base with other companies.

. . . Voice will be one of the primary ways we interact with computers at some point down the road. Therefore, Siri is essentially an important UI strategy for Apple. It’s as important as iOS is to Apple today. Google knows this which is why they are full throttle on Google Assistant. Amazon knows this which is why they are tripling down on Alexa. So what is stake for Apple in this future is how much they want to share the voice assistant their customers use with others besides themselves. Does Apple want their customers to use Siri 100% of the time? 70%? 50%? This is the philosophical conversation long term.

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