(THREAD) Per NBC, Trump has told friends he'd be in trouble if Paul Manafort "flipped" on him—clearly signaling that Manafort can incriminate him and get him impeached. By that measure, today's events have brought Trump closer than ever to impeachment. Hope you'll read and share.
Seth Abramson?Verified account @SethAbramson
2/ Three weeks ago, NBC all but reported that Trump has incriminated himself in private calls to friends. I've no idea why this reporting didn't become major national news—frankly, I expect whoever dimed him out thought it would be. And it still should be.
3/ In common and legal parlance, to "flip" on someone is to agree to testify against them in a criminal case. A current defendant like Paul Manafort would only flip on someone if they had sufficient incriminating evidence to offer their prosecutor that they could cut a plea deal.
4/ So when NBC reported—3 weeks ago—that "Trump is telling friends and aides in private that things are going great for him [because] he's decided a key witness in the Russia probe, Paul Manafort, isn't going to flip and sell him out," they were saying he's incriminated himself.
[ That IS an admission that Manafort has incriminating information on Crooked Donnie. But it doesn't matter. The man has a pact with Satan so normal incriminating admissions don't matter. Examples:
He colluded with Russia in public when he said "Russia, if you're listening ..." His top campaign people colluded in private by meeting with a Russian entourage who said they had dirt on Hillary to offer.
He admitted to obstruction of justice when he told Lester Holt and the Russian ambassador and Foreign ?Minister he fired Comey to shut down the Russia investigation.
Everyone knows he's guilty of conspiring with Russia and lots of other bad stuff, but a third of the voters will defend him no matter what so the standard of proof is set ridiculously high for him ]
5/ NBC put the word "flip" in quotes—meaning Trump confidants say that's the word he's using. That's not a word Trump or anyone would use for the only other possible fear that Trump could have been referring to with Paul Manafort—that Manafort will make up an incriminating story.
6/ While one could use a phrase like "stab me in the back" to describe a criminal defendant who makes up a story about someone else to save themselves, to "flip" is to make a "proffer" to the prosecutor to the effect that you can offer evidence to incriminate and convict another.
7/ Keep in mind two things about Trump and Manafort: 1. They knew each other for years before Trump made Manafort his Campaign Manager. (They lived in the same building—Trump Tower—for years.) 2. The two kept speaking by phone for at least six months after Trump fired Manafort.
[ Sure they had to talk by phone, Manafort had reports to Oleg he had to make. ]
8/ Let's focus on the second item. It means Trump kept up a clandestine relationship with Manafort for half a year after he publicly disavowed him. It also means that he was speaking to Manafort long after it had become clear that Manafort would be a witness in the Mueller probe.
9/ Indeed, because Manafort worked for Trump for six months (not the three Trump claims) for *free*, it's not at all clear that his role in Trump's life changed much after he was fired in late summer 2016: he was an unpaid advisor to Trump both before and after his sudden firing.
10/ My point is that there's every reason to believe—as Trump has done this with *other* Mueller witnesses—that a) Trump believes Manafort can incriminate him, and b) he's found ways to stay in contact with Manafort, so that Manafort understands he can expect a pardon from Trump.
[ There may be a plan to give Manafort a federal pardon and let him be whisked out of the country before state charges can be filed. Once in Russia, he'd be safe just like fellow traitor, Snowden. ]
11/ If you doubt this, look at the question via a different angle: what *public* information could Trump *possibly* be looking at to so smugly—with such certitude—be telling confidants there's *no* chance that Manafort will flip on him? *All* the *public* evidence says otherwise.
12/ As for the public evidence in the Manafort case, here's what we know: with the superseding indictments Mueller plans to bring soon, Manafort's *easily* looking at spending the rest of his life in a federal prison and running out of money to pay his attorneys long before then.
14/ He (Manafort) is facing the most talented team of federal criminal prosecutors assembled for the purpose a single criminal investigation in the last half-century. Also, not for nothing, Manafort is—as Manafort knows—100% and unalterably guilty of everything he's charged with.
.............
18/ But there's another thing: if Manafort knows Trump, he knows Trump can't be trusted. He *certainly* knows he can't trust Trump with his *life*. And he *also* knows he's a primary Mueller target—so he can't "flip" for a deal unless and until he can *deliver Trump to Mueller*.
19/ So a reasonable "theory of the case" from the standpoint of a seasoned CJS professional would include these facts: 1. There's a good chance Trump is tampering with Manafort. 2. Trump thinks Manafort can incriminate him. 3. Manafort doesn't trust Trump. 4. Manafort will flip.
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Manafort is walking around with an ankle monitor, from a home in Palm Beach Gardens. The FBI better be mounting a close watch on him. Not just because he might flee, but because someone might shut his mouth permanently. |
