Consumer Tech Industry Maturity. Observations and Implications
It is becoming clear the consumer tech industry has reached maturity. This seems like an odd thing to say given how long the tech industry has been around, but as I’ve observed through the years, the consumer tech part of the industry is relatively young. PCs didn’t truly go mass market until the mid-2000s and the most personal computer ever invented, the smartphone is only now showing signs of functioning as a mature market. Nearly every single data point I collect sends a signal that consumer tech is now reaching full maturity which will shift the industry dynamics dramatically for everyone looking to compete.
Before going deeper, I think it is helpful to articulate my definition of what makes a market mature. Most business professors I talk to, and most executives and authors of business books, etc., would define a mature market as when a consumer has a full understanding of what it is exactly they want. I take this definition farther and add they also need to comprehend why. When doing interviews with consumers, I find the most insights into their mindset are generated when you ask them why they like a specific product over another, or why they choose this product over another. At some point in time in the maturity of a market, the reasons move from simple things like price, or brand, or one feature to a deeper articulation of why these certain things matter to them.
One observation that had not clicked with me before is how Apple has served as the barometer to measure industry maturity. In particular, the iPhone is now up against mature market fundamentals at around the same time the entire smartphone market is showing signs of maturity. Things like lengthening replacement cycles, consumers spending more on devices that fit their interests as their interests refine and they know what they want. Smartphone buyers are now purchasing smartphones with a mature market mentality, and that is impacting the market and Apple at nearly identical times.
While it is certainly true areas of consumer tech are not mature yet, like smartwatches, for example, the vast majority of categories are now mature. And even with some categories not being mature, we still see consumers purchasing with an overall heightened awareness of their likes and dislikes across all categories of products. One of the more interesting observations, which serves as a supporting point for mine on the overall consumer tech landscape being mature, is how fast we see new technology be adopted.
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